000
FXUS64 KFWD 291043
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Wednesday with
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal.
- A significant pattern change will bring widespread rain and
cooler temperatures to the region starting Wednesday night and
continuing into next weekend.
- Conditions may exist for the development of a few strong or
marginally severe thunderstorms across North Texas late
Wednesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Only minor edits were made to the morning forecast update. Low
stratus has filled in over much of North and Central Texas with a
few echoes becoming visible on radar this morning indicating the
potential for spotty showers and mist through the morning hours
beneath this cloud deck. Breezy southerly winds will persist
through much of the short-term period with occasional gusts up to
30-35 mph this afternoon, especially west of I-35. Increased
thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday with the potential for
a few storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts, primarily along/north of I-20.
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/
Sustained southerly winds have strengthened to 15-20 mph across
North and Central Texas with occasional 30 mph gusts as the pressure
gradient tightens out ahead of a storm system currently located
over the Desert Southwest. A northward surge in moisture and low
stratus is currently occurring with support from a 40 kt low-
level jet anchored near 900mb. Spotty light showers and mist may
develop beneath this cloud deck later this morning, thus have kept
20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest chances along the
I-35 corridor. Precip chances will diminish as we head into the
afternoon hours. Low stratus will lift and begin to scatter out by
midday, but lingering cloud cover will keep afternoon highs a
touch cooler today (mid 80s), albeit still 10-15 degrees above-
average.
Several locations may approach Wind Advisory criteria
along/west of I-35 this afternoon, but current thinking is that
this potential will remain too isolated for an issuance at this
moment (will re-evaluate in the morning update). Most will see
sustained southerly winds at 15-20 mph, however 20-25 mph winds
with occasional gusts to 35 mph will be possible across our Big
Country and western North Texas counties through Tuesday
afternoon. Make sure to secure any loose objects you'd like to
keep from blowing around! Higher humidity will help to alleviate
the overall fire weather threat, but with gusty winds and
persistent drought conditions, continue to practice caution if you
are partaking in any activities that could lead to sparks.
Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect rich, Gulf
moisture northward Tuesday night into Wednesday with another round
of low stratus and spotty showers likely Wednesday morning.
Warm/moist advection will support the development of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but the main
round of advertised storms will arrive Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/
A period of active weather will be underway by Wednesday night
across North and Central Texas as an initial shortwave trough
swings through the Central Plains and sends a cold front
southward. This front will be traversing North Texas at the
beginning of the period and will likely be accompanied by a line
of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to
severe. While instability will be modest at best, strong low and
mid level wind shear will support rotating updrafts and the
potential for a few severe storms with primarily a damaging wind
threat. This line of storms will continue east along the front
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning with most areas
picking up some much needed beneficial rainfall.
Fortunately it looks like the front will clear the region by
midday Thursday with skies clearing and high pressure briefly
building into North Texas just in time for Halloween trick-or-
treating. Skies should be mostly clear Thursday evening with
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The old frontal boundary will be draped across our far southeast
counties late Thursday night and will quickly be pulled northward
during the day Friday in response to strong pressure falls in the
Plains. This is ahead of a deep trough digging into the Western
CONUS which will approach the region slowly into early next week.
Ahead of this trough, deepening southerly flow will pull
anomalously high PWs (near climatological maximums around ~1.7")
northward into the Plains. We'll see an uptick in warm advection
showers starting as early as Friday afternoon with the highest
rain and storm chances Saturday through Monday. While it won't
rain the entire time, periodic bouts of rainfall will be heavy at
times. Current forecast 72-hour rainfall amounts from Saturday
through Monday average between 1.5 and 3 inches with the heaviest
totals along and north of the I-20 corridor into the Texoma
region. 90th percentile totals exceed 5 inches along the Red River
which does heighten the awareness for some potential flooding
issues despite the recent spell of dry weather. In addition,
strong low level southerly wind fields, particularly between
950-850 mb would support the potential for fast moving rotating
storms within pockets of stronger surface based instability
Saturday through Monday. We'll continue to monitor this potential
over the coming days as we enter a more active weather pattern.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
BKN MVFR cigs at roughly 1800-2500ft have filled in over much of
North and Central Texas this morning. Expect MVFR cigs to persist
through much of the morning, lifting and scattering by midday
(~17Z-18Z) at all terminals. Spotty showers and mist will be
possible beneath this cloud deck along the I-35 corridor through
the morning hours. Strong southerly flow at 15-20 kts will persist
through the TAF period with occasional gusts to 30 kts.
Langfeld
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 72 85 62 73 / 20 20 50 90 10
Waco 86 71 88 65 79 / 30 10 40 90 30
Paris 85 68 82 61 75 / 5 10 50 100 30
Denton 85 69 86 56 74 / 20 20 50 90 5
McKinney 86 70 85 59 75 / 20 10 50 90 10
Dallas 86 71 86 62 75 / 20 20 50 90 10
Terrell 87 70 85 62 76 / 20 10 50 90 30
Corsicana 88 71 86 67 78 / 20 10 50 90 40
Temple 87 70 89 65 80 / 30 10 30 80 30
Mineral Wells 87 69 88 54 76 / 10 20 40 70 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion