000
FXUS64 KFWD 211013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The storms currently moving across Eastern Oklahoma will continue
sliding southeast, staying outside of the CWA this morning. The
storms in West Texas at this time will move east/northeast 
through the morning, likely reaching the far northwest zones 
later this morning. Our expectation on storm timing, coverage and
intensity has not changed from the previous forecast (see 
discussion below).

About the only change necessary with this update will be to 
increase cloud coverage this morning based on the extensive middle
and high clouds currently filtering in from West Texas. 

79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Thursday night/

An upper level ridge currently in place across the Southern 
Plains will begin to deamplify tonight through Thursday night 
while a powerful closed low rotates across the western CONUS. 
Subsidence under the ridge will stay in place across much of 
Central Texas tonight through Thursday night, keeping about the 
southern half of the CWA precipitation-free. That will not be the 
case across North Texas since shortwave energy will eject from the
base of the upper trough and provide the necessary lift for 
scattered showers and storms on Thursday. It does appear that 
storm initiation will favor the afternoon hours across the 
west/northwest when destabilization is maximized. Numerous 
outflows and shortwave energy will remain in place through 
Thursday evening, resulting in somewhat organized storm clusters. 
By late Thursday evening, the return of the low level jet will 
continue to supply moisture to sustain some storms through the 
night. Shear and instability will be sufficient enough to support
some strong to severe storms with a threat of large hail and 
damaging winds. Luckily, storms will also be efficient rain 
producers with precipitable water values generally above 1.75 
inches. Although some locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the
steering flow will be strong enough to limit the flash flood 
potential.

Outside of the storms, it will remain warm and humid through 
Thursday with lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the lower and 
middle 90s. 

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023/
/Friday Morning Onward/

By daybreak Friday, the remnants of any nocturnal convection/MCS 
spawned by the latest ridge-topping shortwave embedded in the flow
aloft will likely by waning or shifting into East Texas and 
Louisiana. With North and Central Texas positioned just west of 
the gradient between northwest flow aloft and the northern Mexico 
ridge, mid-level ascent will linger nearby through much of the day
Friday. Additional convective development is possible through the
afternoon, primarily east of the I-35 corridor, as a stalled 
frontal boundary draped near the Red River and residual outflows 
serve to focus new development in response to the persistent 
forcing. 

All areas should see some dry time by Friday night with 
unseasonably warm temperatures expected for the first day of 
(astronomical) fall. Just Texas doing Texas things! In response to
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies, surface winds will veer
slightly to the southwest allowing temperatures to climb into the
90s region-wide. A few locations out west may even reach the 
triple digits. To put this into context, these temperatures are 
around 10 to 15 degrees above calendar day 30-year averages and 
within a few degrees of daily records. Additionally, peak heat 
index values in the 100-104 range are expected. 

As the seasonably strong mid-level low currently entering the 
Great Basin/Intermountain West ejects into the Plains this 
weekend, the associated surface cold front extending from the 
northern Plains surface low will begin sweeping across the central
CONUS. Ahead of this surface boundary, isolated thunderstorm 
development is possible along the diffuse dryline extending 
through West TX. I have opted to maintain slight chance (15-25%) 
PoPs across North Texas as a couple of these convective attempts 
may survive the eastward trek into the region Saturday afternoon 
and evening. Thunderstorm chances are still progged to expand in 
coverage Sunday as the cold front sags southward into the region 
before stalling. 

Given this pattern, areas of locally heavy rainfall cannot be 
ruled out which may lead to instances of minor nuisance flooding 
or isolated flash flooding, primarily east of I-35. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Tuesday
afternoon, before the front washes out completely and southerly 
flow returns. Unfortunately, this Pacific front is not expected to
provide the cool down many of us may be hoping for, however rain-
cooled air and widespread cloud cover should shave several degrees
off of daytime temperatures with the return of widespread highs 
in the 80s through at least mid-week. The remainder of the 
extended forecast period should be mostly precipitation-free as 
mid-level ridging builds back across the Plains. 

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
storm timing and placement. We anticipate the storms currently in
West Texas to move northeast through the morning as shortwave
energy translates through southwest flow aloft. This should keep 
most of the storms north/northwest of the Metroplex TAF sites 
this morning. Multiple high res solutions bring scattered storms 
to the northern fringe of the D10 airspace after 23Z . Therefore, 
we will maintain the mention of thunder in the vicinity but will 
bump the timing up just a hair (23Z-03Z). Waco will experience 
more of the subsidence from the upper ridge centered over South 
Texas and Mexico so we will not include any VCSH or VCTS in this 
forecast.

Stratus has developed this morning across the Hill Country and
South Texas as expected but it is very patchy. Therefore, a TEMPO
group for MVFR ceilings in Waco will be included from the start 
of the forecast through 16Z. Confidence in the stratus reaching 
the Metroplex terminals remains low but it does appear a few 
passing low clouds will make a brief appearance after sunrise.
Otherwise, scattered to broken middle and high clouds will prevail
through the TAF cycle except for lower clouds and reduced
visibility associated with any thunderstorms that develop.

Southerly flow will continue at all terminals through Thursday
night at speeds between 8 and 14 knots with some afternoon gusts
around 24 knots. The only exception will be in and near any
thunderstorms or random outflow boundaries where stronger and
variable winds will be possible.  

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  75  94  77  97 /  30  30  20   5  10 
Waco                95  74  95  76  97 /   5   5  20   5   5 
Paris               89  69  84  69  91 /  50  50  60  10  30 
Denton              94  73  94  75  97 /  40  40  30  10  10 
McKinney            92  72  89  74  94 /  40  40  40  10  10 
Dallas              96  75  94  76  97 /  30  30  30   5  10 
Terrell             93  72  91  74  94 /  30  30  30  10  10 
Corsicana           96  76  94  76  97 /  10  20  20   5   5 
Temple              96  74  96  75  97 /   5   5  10   0   0 
Mineral Wells       96  74  97  75  99 /  30  20  20   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$