000
FXUS64 KFWD 211013
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The storms currently moving across Eastern Oklahoma will continue
sliding southeast, staying outside of the CWA this morning. The
storms in West Texas at this time will move east/northeast
through the morning, likely reaching the far northwest zones
later this morning. Our expectation on storm timing, coverage and
intensity has not changed from the previous forecast (see
discussion below).
About the only change necessary with this update will be to
increase cloud coverage this morning based on the extensive middle
and high clouds currently filtering in from West Texas.
79
Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Thursday night/
An upper level ridge currently in place across the Southern
Plains will begin to deamplify tonight through Thursday night
while a powerful closed low rotates across the western CONUS.
Subsidence under the ridge will stay in place across much of
Central Texas tonight through Thursday night, keeping about the
southern half of the CWA precipitation-free. That will not be the
case across North Texas since shortwave energy will eject from the
base of the upper trough and provide the necessary lift for
scattered showers and storms on Thursday. It does appear that
storm initiation will favor the afternoon hours across the
west/northwest when destabilization is maximized. Numerous
outflows and shortwave energy will remain in place through
Thursday evening, resulting in somewhat organized storm clusters.
By late Thursday evening, the return of the low level jet will
continue to supply moisture to sustain some storms through the
night. Shear and instability will be sufficient enough to support
some strong to severe storms with a threat of large hail and
damaging winds. Luckily, storms will also be efficient rain
producers with precipitable water values generally above 1.75
inches. Although some locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the
steering flow will be strong enough to limit the flash flood
potential.
Outside of the storms, it will remain warm and humid through
Thursday with lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the lower and
middle 90s.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023/
/Friday Morning Onward/
By daybreak Friday, the remnants of any nocturnal convection/MCS
spawned by the latest ridge-topping shortwave embedded in the flow
aloft will likely by waning or shifting into East Texas and
Louisiana. With North and Central Texas positioned just west of
the gradient between northwest flow aloft and the northern Mexico
ridge, mid-level ascent will linger nearby through much of the day
Friday. Additional convective development is possible through the
afternoon, primarily east of the I-35 corridor, as a stalled
frontal boundary draped near the Red River and residual outflows
serve to focus new development in response to the persistent
forcing.
All areas should see some dry time by Friday night with
unseasonably warm temperatures expected for the first day of
(astronomical) fall. Just Texas doing Texas things! In response to
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies, surface winds will veer
slightly to the southwest allowing temperatures to climb into the
90s region-wide. A few locations out west may even reach the
triple digits. To put this into context, these temperatures are
around 10 to 15 degrees above calendar day 30-year averages and
within a few degrees of daily records. Additionally, peak heat
index values in the 100-104 range are expected.
As the seasonably strong mid-level low currently entering the
Great Basin/Intermountain West ejects into the Plains this
weekend, the associated surface cold front extending from the
northern Plains surface low will begin sweeping across the central
CONUS. Ahead of this surface boundary, isolated thunderstorm
development is possible along the diffuse dryline extending
through West TX. I have opted to maintain slight chance (15-25%)
PoPs across North Texas as a couple of these convective attempts
may survive the eastward trek into the region Saturday afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorm chances are still progged to expand in
coverage Sunday as the cold front sags southward into the region
before stalling.
Given this pattern, areas of locally heavy rainfall cannot be
ruled out which may lead to instances of minor nuisance flooding
or isolated flash flooding, primarily east of I-35. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Tuesday
afternoon, before the front washes out completely and southerly
flow returns. Unfortunately, this Pacific front is not expected to
provide the cool down many of us may be hoping for, however rain-
cooled air and widespread cloud cover should shave several degrees
off of daytime temperatures with the return of widespread highs
in the 80s through at least mid-week. The remainder of the
extended forecast period should be mostly precipitation-free as
mid-level ridging builds back across the Plains.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
storm timing and placement. We anticipate the storms currently in
West Texas to move northeast through the morning as shortwave
energy translates through southwest flow aloft. This should keep
most of the storms north/northwest of the Metroplex TAF sites
this morning. Multiple high res solutions bring scattered storms
to the northern fringe of the D10 airspace after 23Z . Therefore,
we will maintain the mention of thunder in the vicinity but will
bump the timing up just a hair (23Z-03Z). Waco will experience
more of the subsidence from the upper ridge centered over South
Texas and Mexico so we will not include any VCSH or VCTS in this
forecast.
Stratus has developed this morning across the Hill Country and
South Texas as expected but it is very patchy. Therefore, a TEMPO
group for MVFR ceilings in Waco will be included from the start
of the forecast through 16Z. Confidence in the stratus reaching
the Metroplex terminals remains low but it does appear a few
passing low clouds will make a brief appearance after sunrise.
Otherwise, scattered to broken middle and high clouds will prevail
through the TAF cycle except for lower clouds and reduced
visibility associated with any thunderstorms that develop.
Southerly flow will continue at all terminals through Thursday
night at speeds between 8 and 14 knots with some afternoon gusts
around 24 knots. The only exception will be in and near any
thunderstorms or random outflow boundaries where stronger and
variable winds will be possible.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 94 77 97 / 30 30 20 5 10
Waco 95 74 95 76 97 / 5 5 20 5 5
Paris 89 69 84 69 91 / 50 50 60 10 30
Denton 94 73 94 75 97 / 40 40 30 10 10
McKinney 92 72 89 74 94 / 40 40 40 10 10
Dallas 96 75 94 76 97 / 30 30 30 5 10
Terrell 93 72 91 74 94 / 30 30 30 10 10
Corsicana 96 76 94 76 97 / 10 20 20 5 5
Temple 96 74 96 75 97 / 5 5 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 96 74 97 75 99 / 30 20 20 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion