000
FXUS64 KFWD 311729
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1229 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return early tomorrow morning and into the
  afternoon/evening. A few storms may be severe with damaging 
  winds and large hail. 
  
- Daily storm chances are expected every day next week. Some
  severe storms will be possible, most likely on Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Flooding could also become a concern midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

Another seasonably warm day can be expected today under high 
pressure with generally sunny skies and temperatures climbing into
the low to upper 80s across all of North and Central Texas. A few
high cirrus clouds will pass by overhead through the afternoon 
with occasionally hazy skies due to the advection of Canadian 
wildfire smoke aloft. Surface impacts are not expected. 

A shortwave trough currently located across South Dakota will 
move southward, leading to the development of showers and 
thunderstorms across portions of northern Oklahoma through the 
evening. The latest high-resolution model guidance suggests  
upscale development into a complex of thunderstorms that may reach
our Red River counties as early as 2-3 AM Sunday morning. The 
environment across North and Central Texas will be capable of 
sustaining at least an isolated strong to marginally severe 
thunderstorm, with the main threats including hail and damaging 
winds. Depending on the organization and structure of this 
complex, the severe threat may very well be winding down by the 
time it reaches our northern tier of counties. The best window for
timing appears to be between 5 AM to 11 AM as storms move south 
through North Texas into portions of Central Texas. There may be a
brief lull in precipitation through the early afternoon before 
the remnants of the morning activity reignite across Central Texas
through the late afternoon and evening hours. This activity will 
have slightly higher potential for widely scattered severe 
thunderstorms, with the main threats once again including large 
hail and damaging winds. There will also be a low tornado threat 
given increased low-level shear as seen in forecast soundings 
across Central Texas. Any storms that persist will dissipate and 
move south of our area by 10-11 PM Sunday night.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes had to be made to the long term portion of the
forecast with an active weather pattern remaining in place for
much of the upcoming week. The best chances for severe weather
remain through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A flood threat will try to materialize
through the middle of the week as well, and will be worth 
watching as guidance continues to come in. This will keep our 
temperatures near to slightly below normal through the first week 
of June, which is an added bonus despite how active it'll be. This
period of active weather will also continue to keep any concerns 
regarding drought and fire weather down as well, though we will 
need to monitor for the continued potential for severe weather. 
For more details, please see the previous discussion.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/

Upper level ridging will build across the region early Monday in 
wake of the departing upper shortwave responsible for our Sunday 
rain chances. Unfortunately, rain-free conditions will only be 
temporary as the ridge gets shunted eastward in response to a 
weakening cut-off low over Baja California becoming caught up by a
digging western CONUS trough. Southerly flow on the back edge of 
the ridge and downstream of the incoming trough will allow for 
increased moisture return, with a dryline sharpening well to our 
west. The aforementioned cut-off low will deamplify into an open 
shortwave early in the day on Monday, eventually ejecting to the 
northeast across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Lift from the 
shortwave will promote convective development along the dryline 
well to our west, moving towards North and Central Texas later in 
evening and overnight period.

Another closed low will deamplify into an open wave as it ejects 
to the northeast from southern California/Baja over midweek. 
Meanwhile, a cold front will sag south through Oklahoma and stall 
along the Red River, which will provide a zone of more focused 
ascent both Tuesday and Wednesday. We expect storms to develop 
along the dryline out west and along the stalled boundary, with 
increasing coverage in the Tuesday night - Wednesday morning and 
Wednesday night - Thursday morning time periods. As the region 
will continue to be located within a moist and unstable airmass, 
severe storms will be possible both days, with the most likely 
threats of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat 
remains a bit more uncertain, but will be better defined in the 
coming days as mid and high resolution guidance begin to cover 
this period. Minor flooding may also become an issue midweek as 
PWATs between 1.5-2" will promote periods of heavy rain. Most 
recent NBM and WPC QPF data highlight our northwestern areas for 
1.5-2.5" of rainfall Tuesday through Thursday, with isolated 
higher amounts up to around 5". As of right now, exact rainfall 
amounts and locations of highest totals are uncertain and will 
change with future model guidance. Nonetheless, it may be a good 
idea to keep an eye on the midweek forecast as severe weather and 
flooding could impact plans.

The front will eventually be pushed back north as a warm front 
late this week, keeping North and Central Texas in an unstable and
moist environment. Above the surface, mid-level ridging will 
become planted across Mexico and southern Texas, with our region 
on the northern apex. Shortwave disturbances will traverse the top
of the ridge through the rest of this upcoming week, keeping 
daily rain chances through the end of the 7 Day forecast. This 
unsettled pattern will likely last even longer, however, with the 
latest CPC 8- 14 Day Outlook favoring above normal precipitation 
through the first couple weeks of June (June 7-13). We'll continue
to keep an eye on the severe weather potential, and will give out
more details as they become available.


Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Low VCSH/VCTS potential, brief northerly winds.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
entire period. Southerly winds will remain fairly light through
most of the period too, generally at or below 7 knots and could be
variable at times. A weakening complex of thunderstorms will move
south across the Red River through the early morning on Sunday,
with most of the activity expected to remain east of the D10 TAF
sites. There will be a brief window from around 13-16z tomorrow
morning where there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm,
though impacts appear to remain limited. There is some uncertainty
with regards to timing with this activity as well, additionally
there could be a few hours of light northerly winds as this
weakening complex of thunderstorms moves south. Additional
thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon and evening, but
should remain well to the south of the D10 TAFs. Waco could see a
few hours of VCTS and low TSRA potential though.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  69  88  72  90 /   0  20  20  10   5 
Waco                86  68  92  72  91 /   0   0  30  20   5 
Paris               83  64  81  65  85 /   0  30  20   5   5 
Denton              86  65  87  69  90 /   0  20  20  10   5 
McKinney            85  66  86  69  88 /   0  20  20  10   5 
Dallas              88  69  89  71  90 /   0  20  20  10   5 
Terrell             85  65  86  69  88 /   0  20  20  10   5 
Corsicana           86  67  89  73  90 /   0   5  30  20   5 
Temple              86  67  93  72  93 /   0   0  20  20   5 
Mineral Wells       87  66  91  70  93 /   0  10  20  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$