000
FXUS64 KFWD 091011
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
511 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms this 
  afternoon.

- Dry and hot weather returns next week, with highs in the 90s
  expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes are needed to the forecast through
Saturday. Water vapor imagery shows an upstream shortwave
spreading south out of Kansas and into Oklahoma at this hour. 
Weak forcing for ascent from this feature will coincide with peak 
afternoon heating to result in a few showers/storms this 
afternoon. Coverage is expected to be 20% or less. Otherwise, 
we'll see an increase in cloud cover through the day with highs in
the mid/upper 70s.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Friday through Saturday/

Scattered mid and upper cloud cover continues to stream across the
region tonight with light north winds at the surface and
temperatures in the 60s. The rest of tonight will feature
intermittent cloud cover and near normal temperatures with morning
lows expected to be in the upper 50s to near 60.

On Friday, a weak upper low will close off over the Arklatex with
North Texas positioned within an area of broad synoptic scale
ascent ahead of a shortwave trough rotating into the low. Lift
should become maximized during the mid afternoon hours coinciding
with peak heating and we'll likely see at least a few scattered 
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm develop. Generally weak wind 
fields, weak capping, and a lack of any notable surface forcing 
suggest that any convection will be disorganized with little
chance for severe weather. Coverage of any precipitation should be
highest east of I-35 where moisture is a little better. We'll have
PoPs at 20% to account for this activity. Any ongoing convection
will quickly diminish by early evening with loss of heating.

Otherwise, Friday night and Saturday should be relatively quiet as
the main upper low slowly drifts to the south. Mid and high level
cloud cover will likely linger into Saturday as moisture wraps
around the upper low. Any additional rain chance should be
confined to coastal areas and into Central TX south of our area
through the day Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

An upper low will remain stationary over Louisiana for a good 24 
hours during the latter half of the weekend, while its surface 
counterpart meanders around the LA/MS coastal region. This will 
keep light north winds and seasonably cool temperatures in place 
through Sunday night, with Monday morning lows once again in the 
50s. The low will finally be kicked off to the northeast Monday 
through Tuesday as the next upper trough digs southward along the 
West Coast. The resulting ridge over the Plains will create a 
warming trend for the early to midweek period of next week. By 
Wednesday we will experience lows around 70 with highs in the 90s 
across the board. 

The ridge will shift slowly east during the second half of the 
week, which will knock a few degrees off afternoon temperatures 
Thursday and Friday, but above-normal readings can still be 
expected. This eastward shift may open the region up to some 
convection as a trough swinging through the Plains pushes the 
dryline east into the area late next Friday. Activity would likely
be isolated and dependent upon if the cap breaks. More widespread
showers and storms may finally re-enter the picture next weekend 
as another shortwave takes a farther south route through the 
Southern Plains. It is still quite a ways out, but being the 
middle of May all but ensures at least some potential for severe 
weather. We will gain more confidence in the severe weather 
potential as higher resolution guidance is received next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail outside of any isolated convection this afternoon
although we'll see an increase in mid and high cloud cover through
the day. North winds 10-15 kt this afternoon will diminish to 5 to
10 kt overnight. The main change to this TAF issuance is to have a
brief window of VCTS from 20-23Z.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  59  76  56  77 /  20   5   5   0   0 
Waco                77  59  76  56  77 /  20   5  10   0   0 
Paris               75  56  74  54  73 /  20   5   0   5  10 
Denton              75  55  76  51  76 /  20   5   0   0   0 
McKinney            75  57  76  53  75 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Dallas              77  60  77  57  77 /  20   5   5   0   0 
Terrell             75  57  76  54  75 /  20  10   5   0   5 
Corsicana           77  59  77  56  76 /  20  10  10   0   5 
Temple              79  59  78  55  79 /  20   5  20   0   0 
Mineral Wells       76  55  76  51  78 /  20   5   5   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$