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DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX WEATHER
46°F
FORECAST DISCUSSION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 280859
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
359 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New Long Term... 

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
/End of the Week/

Our persistent Central CONUS upper trough will continue to pull
readily away to the east with an assist from the exiting strong
180 kt+ jet maximum headed for the northern GoM. A broad NE-SW
surface ridge axis will shift to the east as well with a return to
modest south or southeast winds around 10 mph returning by
afternoon. Though there will be a cool start to the day in the
upper 30s and 40s, the dry airmass in place will warm readily
under plentiful sunshine and strong insolation to between 65 and
75 degrees by mid afternoon. There will be some patchy dense fog
possible across the Colorado River Valley of far western Central
Texas into parts of the Big Country, but nothing that will last
long or require any advisory highlights around sunrise this
morning. 

Strong ridging aloft will take hold tonight into early Friday as 
an approaching shortwave helps to enhance surface pressure falls 
to our west. Southerly winds will increase to between 15 to 20 mph
late this evening and overnight as low level warm advection
increases across the Southern Plains with a 40-50 kt LLJ likely 
developing along and west of I-35 overnight. A few, mostly
transient mid level impulses transiting the ridge crest before 
Friday morning will result in periods of scattered to broken high 
cloudiness. This cloudiness, combined with the increasing
southerly surface winds and warm advection, will help keep Friday
morning lows capped in the 50s. 

Friday looks quite windy and should be warmer despite scattered 
to broken high clouds continuing to stream east across the
forecast area. Humidity will be on the increase as modified 
moisture returns with dew point temperatures in the 50s surging 
northward across the region. If not for the high clouds, it could 
be warmer than the current mid to upper 70s being advertised for 
afternoon high temperatures. Falling surface pressure across the 
lee of the southern and central Rockies will combine with late 
morning mixing to produce gusty southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with
gusts likely in the 35 to 40 mph range through the day. A Wind 
Advisory will likely need to be issued in future forecasts for the
very strong and gusty southerly winds. No precipitation is expected
as a strengthening capping inversion will be situated over the
region.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend Through Eclipse Day/

Above normal temperatures will prevail this weekend with breezy
south winds. Many locations will reach 80F, particularly on 
Sunday despite steadily increasing cloud cover. In fact, portions
of the Big Country may approach 90F for the final day of March. 
The south winds will usher in rich Gulf moisture, soaring dew 
points well into the 60s, which is among the highest
climatological values for the end of March. This will set the 
stage for our next bout of showers and storms.

As broad troughing in the West approaches, its downstream lift
will begin spreading across the Lone Star State as early as 
Sunday. A dryline should remain well west of us Sunday afternoon, 
but any storms that develop along it could reach our 
west/northwest frontier Sunday evening. Storm chances will 
increase on Monday when a more pronounced surge brings the dryline
deep into North Texas though the better forcing for ascent will 
remain displaced well to our west. The rain event will culminate 
Monday night when a cold front overtakes the dryline.

Despite the sun's return, below normal temperatures will prevail 
Tuesday and Wednesday with breezy north winds. A warming trend
beyond the current 7-day forecast will return 70s to the region
from Thursday through the following weekend (April 5-7).

Some dynamical guidance continues to capture Monday, April 8, but
the output is still skewed toward climatology. The vast majority
of solutions keep North and Central Texas in the south flow 
regime following next week's cold front. With a steadily 
moistening boundary layer, this would favor nocturnal/morning 
stratus. Climatology portends that early April stratus is unlikely
to effectively erode. On those occasions that erosion occurs, it 
does so by midday (prior to eclipse time). If not, low clouds 
linger through the afternoon. Based on the dynamical output, 
GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles all demonstrate springtime stratus in 
their cloud probabilities. On the bright side, they all favor 
effective erosion, but climatology would place the eclipse-time 
cloud gradient near the path of totality.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
/06z TAFs/

No concerns with VFR expected through tonight across the D10 
airspace. Light E-NE winds around 5 kts will gradually veer SE 
10-15 kts by this afternoon with the eastward departure of the 
surface high currently draped across the area. 

A strong 40-50 kt LLJ will develop across the western half of the
airspace with a stratus surge remaining well west of all airports
by 12z Friday. However, a warmer and semi-coupled boundary layer 
and tightening pressure gradient will result in S winds 15-20 kts 
from late this coming evening into the morning hours Friday. 

05/Marty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  55  77  59  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                73  53  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               67  49  74  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              71  53  75  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            70  53  76  58  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              72  56  76  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             69  52  74  58  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           72  54  78  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              73  53  77  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       73  53  78  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion