000
FXUS64 KFWD 050128
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
728 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Despite an intrusion of colder air today, abnormally warm
  temperatures will return Wednesday and continue the rest of this
  week.

- A cold front this weekend will bring much colder temperatures
  from Sunday into early next week, along with low rain chances. 
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Well today didn't turn out like we expected...across North Texas 
anyways. The far southern edge of an arctic airmass nudged into
North Texas this morning and created cool and cloudy conditions
all day. Most spots in North Texas attained their daily high 
temperature this morning, followed by a sharp cool down and near 
steady temperatures this afternoon. Current temperatures along 
the Red River are in the mid 40s and the mid 50s along the I-20 
corridor. The same cannot be said for our Central Texas counties 
since the shallow wedge of cold air didn't even make it to Waco 
until right about now. Most sites south of US-84 peaked in the mid
80s, making for quite the temperature gradient across North and 
Central Texas this evening.

The cold air should only ooze a little further south over the next 
few hours before a surge of warm and moist air with increasing
southerly flow battles to push it north overnight. The less dense 
(i.e. warm/humid) air will overrun the cool air, resulting in a 
continuation of the cool and cloudy conditions with areas of 
drizzle developing late tonight and tomorrow morning. Apart from 
the drizzle, mist and fog are expected for most locations again 
tonight. We do not have plans to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at 
this time due to spatial uncertainty of where dense fog will
occur, but we'll monitor conditions through the night.

After a cool and cloudy start to the day tomorrow, conditions
should improve as we head into the afternoon. Insolation combined 
with warm advection brought about by a 10-20 mph south-southwest 
breeze should modify the cool airmass at most locations by the 
early afternoon, breaking up the fog and low stratus in short 
order. Temperatures should rebound nicely, especially for areas 
west of DFW where highs are projected to climb into the low 80s. 
Areas across northeast Texas will take a little longer for the 
stratus to breakup, so their daytime highs will remain in the low 
70s.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

A relatively fast zonal flow pattern will remain in place across 
the Central CONUS through the end of the week resulting in
well above normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday. However,
a cold front will be draped across parts of Oklahoma on Thursday
and may slosh southward as disturbances ripple through the faster
northern stream flow. If this occurs, then a slug of colder air
may ooze south across the Red River Thursday afternoon. This could
impact high temperatures north of I-20, but otherwise highs should
top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. A dryline will also
sharpen across our western counties during this time and may lead
to a slight uptick in fire weather concerns for a brief period
Thursday afternoon.

Otherwise, warm conditions will prevail on Friday and Saturday
as an upstream trough over the western U.S. becomes slightly more
amplified. As this trough spreads eastward, a strong cold front
will spill southward through the Plains Saturday evening. Much
colder air will spread into North Texas with lows Saturday night
dropping back down to near freezing in the northwest and highs on
Sunday some 30-35 degrees cooler than Saturday. Highs on Sunday
and Monday should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Another
upstream shortwave will move out of the Southwest by early Monday
with strong low level warm advection developing atop the cooler
airmass early next week. Widespread rain and a few storms look
possible late Monday into Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor the
depth of the cold air for any wintry potential, but temperatures
look a little too warm at this time.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings blanket all of North Texas and will continue through
the evening. Cloud bases should gradually lower tonight and become
IFR after midnight. The timing of IFR is still a little uncertain, 
but we're confident of IFR ceilings late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. We're not as confident in the visibility forecast. The
current forecast calls for 4 SM early tomorrow morning, but
there's a 20% chance the visibility falls AOB 1 SM between 10-14Z. 

Either way, south-southwest winds will increase by mid-morning and
clear any mist/fog by 14-16Z. The ceilings will take a few more
hours to improve, but we expect VFR to return to the D10 terminals
tomorrow afternoon.

Similar trends are expected at ACT, but the lower ceilings won't
move over ACT until about 04-06Z and the conditions should improve 
1-3 hours before the D10 terminals.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  75  65  82  61 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Waco                54  77  64  81  63 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Paris               48  71  64  80  59 /  10  10   0   5   5 
Denton              46  74  62  81  56 /  10  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            47  73  63  80  59 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Dallas              48  76  65  84  61 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Terrell             50  74  64  80  61 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           53  78  65  81  65 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Temple              62  79  63  82  62 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       46  80  61  82  56 /  10  10   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$