000
FXUS64 KFWD 130646
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of heavy rain could result in Flash Flooding tonight 
  through Sunday evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of 
  North and Central Texas.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and 
Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly 
eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max 
across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a 
stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated 
between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast 
U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi-
stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support 
deep-layer ascent across a saturated column.

This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern 
through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and 
localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early 
Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP 
analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and 
Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0 
inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These
values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic 
guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies.

The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across 
western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton 
counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to
gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the 
remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low-
level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow 
aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the
early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will 
support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of 
the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized. 

Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training
convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a 
short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible.
Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and 
Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM 
Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the 
DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco. 
The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the
expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young, 
Jack, Montague and Cooke. 

The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right 
now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early 
evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However, 
as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we 
could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20
corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern
North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper 
trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this 
afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and 
differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to
be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity 
favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized 
training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to 
promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into
the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though 
isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances 
of small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Saturday/

Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support 
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By 
Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin 
to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our 
forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the
beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July 
pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is 
now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering 
influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be 
located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this 
forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances 
while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages.

Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index 
values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the 
100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble 
guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control 
through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness 
aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms
to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next 
weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise,
a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end 
of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas. 

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

As one batch of convection pushes off to the east, a second round
of showers and storms will approach from the west during the 
overnight hours. These storms are associated with with the 
development of a modest 35 kt low level jet, and may briefly 
impact the Metroplex area TAF sites sometime during the 09-15Z 
window. Convection will be more persistent across Central Texas, 
which will warrant at least a TEMPO for KACT if not a few hours of
prevailing thunder near that same window. Activity will dissipate
late morning as the low level jet subsides. Widely scattered 
storms are possible again late Sunday afternoon, but probs are too
low to include in the TAFs at this juncture. Better opportunities
will arrive late Sunday night when an MCV (as indicated by recent
model guidance) lifts northeast through the area. Will assess 
that potential in future forecasts. Otherwise, another round of 
MVFR ceilings appears likely to develop by 12Z, then dissipate 
around 16Z.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested tonight within the 
Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any 
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are 
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  73  90  75  93 /  50  30  30   5  10 
Waco                88  73  89  74  91 /  60  30  20   5   5 
Paris               85  70  88  72  91 /  70  40  40  10  20 
Denton              88  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  40   5  20 
McKinney            87  73  89  74  93 /  60  40  40   5  10 
Dallas              88  73  90  75  94 /  60  30  30   5  10 
Terrell             88  73  89  73  93 /  60  40  30   5  10 
Corsicana           90  74  92  75  94 /  60  30  30   5  10 
Temple              90  72  91  73  92 /  50  30  20   5  10 
Mineral Wells       88  71  91  73  93 /  50  30  40  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093-094-102>104-115>119-
129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

$$