000
FXUS64 KFWD 080002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

A quasi-stationary front currently located along the I-20 
corridor has meandered slightly south over the past few hours, 
placing most of the Metroplex back into the cooler airmass on the 
north side of the boundary. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery 
indicates a shortwave trough spiraling through Nevada-Utah-
Arizona. This disturbance will move northeastward through the 
Rockies tonight, strengthening a lee-side surface low and 
tightening the pressure gradient across the Southern Plains. The 
resulting uptick in return flow should pull the boundary north as 
a warm front tonight, shifting the brunt of the overrunning 
precipitation north of the Red River. Until then, occasional 
showers and areas of fog can be expected this evening for areas 
along and north of the front. 

The shortwave will continue northeast through the Central Plains 
on Thursday. It will be accompanied by a surface low, from which 
our warm front and a Pacific cold front will extend. The pacific 
front will push slowly southeast into North Texas as the surface 
low races towards the Midwest. There will be some warm advection 
showers during the day Thursday, then possibly another band of 
showers accompanying the front Thursday afternoon and evening. 
Once again, it looks like the front will lose its southward push 
and stall, this time a little farther south in Central Texas 
either Thursday night or Friday.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 154 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022/
/Thursday Night to Wednesday Morning/

An unsettled weather pattern is expected through mid next week, as 
multiple fronts and rounds of precipitation plague North and Central 
Texas. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through most of 
the period.

The first front will make its way into the region late Thursday into 
Friday morning, and will stall before it reaches Central Texas. 
Precipitation will accompany this front. With the front practically 
bisecting the region, expect a sharper temperature gradient as 
southerly flow persists ahead of the frontal boundary over the 
morning and afternoon. Morning lows will range from the upper 40s in 
the northwest to the mid 60s in southern Central Texas. Friday high 
temperatures will peak in the mid 60s to low 70s near across North 
Texas, while temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be observed 
across Central Texas. During the overnight hours into Saturday 
morning, the quasi-stationary front will be ushered northward in 
response to lee cyclogenesis off the rockies.

The second front will move in during the afternoon and evening hours 
on Saturday. The movement of this front will be a repeat of the 
previous front, as the boundary makes it into our Central Texas 
counties during the morning hours on Sunday and stalling. Chances 
for showers and some storms will be possible Saturday into Sunday, 
though severe weather is not expected. Temperature gradients across 
the region will be sharper once again, with Sunday morning lows in 
the low 40s in the Northwest to the upper 50s in southern Central 
Texas and afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. The front will 
be lifted as a warm front to near/just north of the Red River during 
the overnight hours into Monday, with rain chances possible in the 
warm/moist sector behind the frontal boundary.

The final (and strongest) front of the long term forecast period 
will move in early next week as a deep tough barrels through the 
Central Plains. Showers and storms will be possible with this front, 
and some storms could become severe-caliber (as shown in model 
forecast soundings). Since there is still quite some time ahead of 
the event, uncertainty abounds with concern to timing. The GFS and 
ECMWF are not in agreement with frontal timing, as the GFS is much 
slower (Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday) when compared to the ECMWF 
(Tuesday morning through evening). SPC has highlighted portions of 
the region in a 15% Severe Weather Outlook in day 6 and 7, and as 
such, this event will need to be monitored as we go into the 
weekend. Check back in later forecast updates later in the week and 
weekend as more specific details about impacts and timing become 
available.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light north winds in the DFW Metroplex will shift to the south
again around 04-06Z this evening as a weak front lifts back to the
north as a warm front. Conditions improved briefly to VFR during
peak heating hours, but are dropping back to IFR along and north
of the front, and should remain as such for much of tonight.
Occasional rain showers can be expected, but weak instability
should keep thunderstorms at a minimum. The front should push
south again into the Metroplex around this time tomorrow, bringing
drier air and better aviation weather conditions to the area.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  73  56  71  61 /  30  30  30  10  40 
Waco                67  80  62  75  62 /  10  20  20  10  20 
Paris               61  71  55  68  59 /  50  50  50   5  50 
Denton              57  68  51  69  57 /  40  30  20   5  40 
McKinney            60  72  53  69  59 /  40  40  40   5  40 
Dallas              62  75  58  70  62 /  30  30  30   5  30 
Terrell             66  76  59  70  61 /  20  40  40  10  30 
Corsicana           67  80  63  74  64 /  10  20  30  10  20 
Temple              67  80  62  76  63 /  10  10  10   5  10 
Mineral Wells       57  71  53  71  58 /  30  20  20  10  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$