000
FXUS64 KFWD 301200
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog east of I-35 will continue to dissipate over 
  the next several hours.

- Well above normal temperatures and breezy conditions expected 
  today with elevated fire weather conditions developing west of 
  I-35. 
  
- Near to below normal temperatures will return on New Year's Eve
  and the opening days of 2025 in the wake of a strong cold front
  passing through the area later today/tonight.  

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current forecast generally remains on track with only minor
adjustments made to account for the current observations/guidance.
Winds have veered more to the south and speeds have picked up
slightly this morning leading to some erosion of the western edge
of the stratus/fog with lowered visibilities becoming further
displaced from the I-35 corridor. Patchy dense fog remains
possible across East Texas through mid morning with most areas
remaining above Dense Fog Advisory criteria (quarter mile
visibility). We are on track for a breezy and unusually warm day
on the eve of New Year's Eve. A Grass Fire Danger Statement was
issued for areas south of I-20 and west of I-35. This area has
missed out on much of the rain that has fallen over the last month
(many areas getting only about 1-1.5 inches in the last 30 days).

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday Night/

A mid/upper level shortwave trough moving across the Intermountain
West and Rockies will swing through the Plains later today. In 
response to this eastward moving shortwave, surface cyclogenesis 
is expected to begin across western Kansas before daybreak. A 
moderately strong MSLP gradient response is expected over the 
Southern Plains with persistent moisture advection beneath a low 
level inversion. This has lead to the redevelopment of patchy 
dense fog and low clouds over the past few hours generally east of
the I-35 corridor. Duration/extent of dense fog does not 
currently warrant the issuance of any fog headlines with coverage 
generally very patchy/scattered and transient. 

Surface winds will veer to the southwest/west and become gusty in
response to the deepening surface low sliding across Kansas later
this morning. Wind speeds have been nudged up towards the NBM 
75th percentile with this issuance to account for the tightening 
pressure gradient. Ahead of the approaching front, downslope flow 
will likely result in highs warming to well above climatological 
averages with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Parts of western 
Central Texas (including Killeen) may see highs closer to the mid 
80s which will threaten daily temperature records there. The 
overlap of gusty winds, well-above average warmth, and low 
humidity will raise fire weather concerns west of the I-35 
corridor this afternoon despite recent rainfall. A Grass Fire 
Danger Statement will likely be issued this morning. 

In the wake of the passing low pressure system, a cold front will
move through the area this evening accompanied by northward 
veering winds. The drier post-frontal air should preclude the 
development of any additional fog or low clouds Monday night into
Tuesday morning. This should allow temperatures to fall into the 
low/mid 40s by daybreak New Year's Eve. 

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Our progressive winter pattern will persist into 2025 with a polar
jet displaced more equatorward than is typical for La Nina,
perhaps evidence that the cold phase of ENSO is still struggling
to take hold. But during much of the week, the embedded storm 
systems will be a bit more poleward than during the bulk of 
December, which may result in our first rain-free week since 
November.

The dry frontal boundary that will arrive today will return more
seasonal temperatures to the region for the final day of 2024.
Much of the region will peak in the 50s Tuesday afternoon despite
abundant sunshine. As winds diminish Tuesday evening, temperatures
will fall through the 40s, with some locations dipping into the 
30s before the clock strikes midnight. A few sites, mainly north
and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, will begin 2025 with
a light freeze. The gradual warming trend that will follow will 
be briefly interrupted by a weak front Thursday night. Many 
locations will reach the 60s during the upcoming weekend before a 
much stronger front arrives. This front will bring rain chances on
Sunday and sharply colder weather for the first full week of 
2025.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds prevail with cigs and/or visibility reductions
from fog and low stratus now east of all TAF sites. Winds will
continue to veer southwesterly and then westerly by midday with
gusts to 25 kts possible through the afternoon. There will not be
an abrupt wind direction change as the front arrives later today,
but winds will continue to gradually shift to the northwest
through the late afternoon and early evening with wind speeds
settling to around 8-12 kts through the remainder of the period. 
The drier post frontal air will remove any additional fog/low 
stratus concerns tonight. 

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  45  57  37  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                82  45  59  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               70  43  55  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              76  39  56  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            75  42  56  33  52 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              78  45  58  37  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             76  44  57  35  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           77  46  59  38  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              83  44  62  35  57 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       80  40  58  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$