000
FXUS64 KFWD 051041
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor adjustments were made to the forecast with this
update. Today will feel quite similar to yesterday, with hot
temperatures rising into the triple digits expected. As ridging 
continues to set in for the week, a Heat Advisory will likely be 
needed across North & Central Texas Wednesday. 

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Mid-level ridging overhead will result in hot and rain-free
conditions through the midweek. Weather similar to today will
dominate the next couple of days as temperatures also take on a
slight warming trend with the strengthening ridge. Highs Tuesday 
will climb mostly up to 100-102 range, with a few isolated areas 
reaching 103-104. Heat indices will remain mostly within a few
degrees of the true temperatures as decent mixing should take 
place again tomorrow. With the exception of a few spots potentially
hitting the 105 degree heat index criteria for an official Heat 
Advisory, most areas will see peak heat indices reaching the 99 to
104 range. As such, there are no current plans to issue a Heat
Advisory for Tuesday, but an advisory will likely be required 
Wednesday with both temperatures hitting the 103 mark and heat 
index values climbing to or above 105 degrees across much of the 
area.

Tuesday night will be another warm night with lows in the mid 70s
to low 80s before temperatures quickly climb again during the day
Wednesday. Low level moisture moving into East and Central Texas 
during the day will result in increased humidity and higher heat 
indices in these areas than Tuesday. With no relief to the heat 
expected soon, ensure precautions are taken to protect against the
heat. Now is a good time to check in on any friends or family 
that may be vulnerable to these temperatures and ensure 
precautions are taken this week to stay hydrated and cool. 

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022/
/Thursday Onward/

Little change to the ongoing weather is expected through the end
of the work week. A stout upper ridge will keep the area hot and 
dry with high temperatures over 100 and heat index values in the 
mid to upper 100s. Our current temperature and heat index forecast 
indicates that a Heat Advisory will likely be needed through at
least Saturday with parts of the area potentially requiring an
Excessive Heat Warning Friday and Saturday. No decision on heat
headlines has been made at this time, but preparations to mitigate 
heat-related impacts later this week and this upcoming weekend 
would be wise. Speaking of the weekend, Saturday looks to be the 
hottest day of the next 7 days as downslope flow and compressional
warming nudges temperatures even higher than they would otherwise. 

A slight pattern change is possible late in the weekend and early
next week as the upper ridge shifts west. With the addition of a
weak front and less subsidence, rain chances could return for some
from Sunday onward. However, we have capped PoPs at 10% since our
confidence of rain on any given day/time is low.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Patchy low clouds have spread northeast into Central Texas over 
the past couple of hours. SCT025 will prevail over the next few
hours at KACT, and a broken MVFR deck may even briefly occur at 
this morning, but any impacts would be very short in duration. 

Otherwise, VFR will prevail with south winds 10-15 kts. Occasional
gustiness is expected, mainly in the afternoon, with gusts to 
near 20 kts. 

Gordon

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   102  80 102  81 103 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco               100  77 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               99  76 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton             102  77 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney           100  77 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             102  82 102  82 102 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell            102  77 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana          101  77 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              99  75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      104  76 104  76 104 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$