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FXUS64 KFWD 202318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

Plenty of sun and subtle adiabatic warming pushed temperatures
into the 70s to the middle 80s with some locations, including DFW,
reaching 80 or above for the first time in 2024. However, it
actually has not been that long since DFW reached 80 degrees 
(December 8th, 2023). 

We still expect warm air advection to continue tonight into 
Wednesday. The low level jet that sets up tonight will have a 
southwesterly direction, keeping the potential for stratus and 
patchy fog generally east of the I-35 corridor. We will not make 
any significant changes to the current forecast (see discussion 
below) but will bump Wednesday highs up a few degrees area-wide 
based on today's temperature trends and the cloud cover, or lack 
of, we expect tomorrow.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Quiet, rain-free weather continues through Wednesday as we remain
beneath a mid-level ridge. Afternoon temperatures will top out
10 to 20 degrees above normal today, with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s. The pressure gradient will compress across North and 
Central Texas this afternoon as a low pressure system intensifies 
in the lee of the Rockies. This will result in the onset of breezy
conditions that will continue through Wednesday. Wind speeds will
increase to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon with a few gusts between 
20 to 25 mph. 

Patchy fog is expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday
morning, but a surge of low stratus adds some uncertainty to this 
forecast. The area highlighted for patchy fog was expanded further
north with this update, but still excludes most of the Metroplex
at this time. It's possible we end up with only low stratus and 
no (or very little) fog, but uncertainty is still quite high.
Regardless, any fog should dissipate by mid to late Wednesday 
morning, with some lingering stratus expected east of I-35 through
midday/early afternoon. 

Guidance has slightly backed off on the hotter temperatures
tomorrow, mainly across the Big Country. NBM probabilities now 
only advertise about a 5-10% chance of reaching 90 degrees in this
region. Therefore, temperatures were lowered slightly from the 
previous forecast. Nonetheless, Wednesday is still expected to be
another warm February day with afternoon highs ranging from the 
mid 70s across the east to mid 80s across the west. Slightly stronger
winds are expected tomorrow, with sustained speeds mostly between
15 to 20 mph and gusts upwards of 30 mph.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 211 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/

No major changes were made to the long term forecast. Upper-level
ridging will continue our above-normal stretch of temperatures 
through much of the week and into next weekend. A weak, rain-free 
cold front will sweep through North and Central Texas on Thursday,
but temperatures will remain slightly above-normal as this cooler
airmass modifies along its journey south. Temperatures will go on
the rise once again over the weekend and into the start of next 
week as highs climb into the upper 70s and low 80s, with rain 
chances remaining just out of reach of the extended forecast.


Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

The ridge at least partially responsible for the nice, warm 
weather will weaken Wednesday night and Thursday as a shortwave 
trough propagates east across the Plains. The trough will drag a 
cold front through North and Central Texas on Thursday, bringing a
slight cool-down for the latter half of the week. Daytime 
temperatures will drop from 15-20 degrees above normal on 
Wednesday to 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday, with Thursday 
being the transition period as the front sweeps through. A tight
pressure gradient associated with 
the surface frontal system will
create windy weather both Wednesday night ahead of the front and
Thursday behind the front.

A warm-up will then ensue this weekend as return flow arrives and
a mid/upper ridge redevelops overhead, with temperatures climbing
to 10-15 degrees above normal by Sunday. South winds will
strengthen late Saturday and remain gusty through Monday as the
next upper trough approaches and lee-side surface troughing
intensifies. The upper trough and its attendant cold front will
bring our next chance of rain around the middle of next week,
followed by cooler and dry weather late next week to round out 
February and begin the month of March.



/00Z TAFs/

No significant aviation weather concerns are expected through the
evening with south flow and only some passing high clouds. 

A 30+ knot low level jet will develop late this evening, sending 
a deck of stratus northward. The southwesterly direction of the 
low level jet should keep the bulk of the low clouds generally 
east of I-35/I-35E as per the HRRR solution, but Waco should be
right on the edge. Therefore, we will continue to show low end
MVFR ceilings in Waco between 11Z and 15Z. A very temporary 
ceiling is possible at DAL but confidence is too low to include. 
Some patchy fog is also possible across the east and southeast
where low level moisture will be most plentiful but no visibility
restrictions are anticipated at the TAF sites.

A south wind will prevail between 11 and 17 knots along with some
gusts near 30 knots, especially Wednesday afternoon.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  77  59  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                56  75  59  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               54  74  59  74  46 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Denton              53  77  56  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            54  75  58  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              57  77  61  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             55  74  58  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           57  75  60  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              55  75  58  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       51  83  55  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 



NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion