000
FXUS64 KFWD 280002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night and Tuesday/

A band of rain with scattered elevated thunderstorms has settled 
along and south of the I-20 corridor late this afternoon that is 
still ongoing. While the initial storms that moved into the 
forecast area were able to tap into a localized pool of higher 
instability, instability across North Texas has weakened and 
should continue to wane this evening. This should result in a 
gradual downward trend of the thunder potential and precip 
intensity. Even still...an isolated strong storm or two will 
remain possible for the next few hours with small hail being the 
main threat. While the rain is oriented along a nearly continuous 
line extending from Ballinger to Sulfur Springs, light precip
rates due to the precip falling from cloud bases around 6-10 kft
AGL are precluding any flood impacts.

A strong cold front is moving into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
that will barrel south this evening. Expect FROPA tonight into 
the early morning hours that will bring gusty north winds to all 
of North and Central Texas tomorrow morning. As the front moves 
south of I-20, we're expecting a thin line of showers to develop 
across Central Texas this evening. Lapse rates aloft are forecast 
to be just sufficient enough to also develop isolated 
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as well. The best 
instability will remain well to our south and southwest, keeping 
any threat of severe weather outside of our forecast area tonight.

Tomorrow will start cool and breezy...particularly across Western
North Texas where wind chill values will be in the low-mid 30s.
Generally speaking, winds of 10-20 mph are expected with peak
gusts around 30 mph. Wind speeds will be highest in the morning
and weaken through the afternoon. A canopy of cirrus will stream
overhead all day, limiting insolation and keeping daytime highs 
generally in the 60s areawide. Late in the afternoon, isentropic 
ascent will start to increase over the northern Hill Country and 
the Big Country and build mid-level clouds in from the west. A few 
elevated showers are possible, but most of the initial precip will  
evaporate before reaching the ground. We have included less than 
20% PoPs across our Western Central Texas counties late tomorrow 
evening as a shortwave trough moves overtop of the isentropic
ascent and helps increase the precip intensity and chance of
measurable precip.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/
/Tuesday night through Early Next Week/

A weak mid-level disturbance will move across our region Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning resulting in isolated to scattered 
showers mainly along and south of I-20. They should be out of our
area by late morning or early afternoon. Otherwise, expect 
slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday as southerly flow 
returns. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. 
The warming trend continues through the rest of the week with 
highs in the 70s on Thursday and 80s on Friday. Overnight 
temperatures will also be warmer with lows in the 50s and 60s.

The main weather headline continues to be the late week storm 
system bringing severe weather potential across our region. As 
discussed in previous discussions, Thursday's severe potential
will be limited due to a slower progression of the upper trough 
and notable cap depicted by model soundings. Recent model trends 
continue to show the dryline and convection remaining well to our
west until later in the evening. What appears more likely at this
time is a broken line of storms late overnight into Friday along a
cold front. Forecast instability and shear appears sufficient for
strong to severe storms especially across the eastern half of the
region. Continue to monitor the forecast updates as details get 
refined! Otherwise, elevated fire weather concerns are expected 
across the far western zones on Friday due to warm, very dry, and 
gusty westerly winds.

The weekend will remain fairly quiet other than some low rain 
chances across Central Texas each afternoon. Light north winds will 
persist on Saturday, but will quickly veer to the south Saturday 
night into Sunday. Breezy conditions are expected Sunday into early 
next week with above normal temps and highs in the mid 80s to low 
90s by next Monday. Looking beyond...the next system is forecast to 
arrive by mid next week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A band of rain with scattered embedded thunderstorms is currently
brushing across the southern parts of D10 that extends southwest
over the Glen Rose cornerpost. We have VCTS in all D10 TAFs
through 03Z with a TEMPO for -TSRA at GKY where TS is more likely 
to continue on-station and halt all takeoffs and landings for a 
prolonged period of time. Either way...thunderstorms will be over
all D10 terminals arrival legs and impact all aircraft landing or
departing for the next several hours. While VCTS only goes through 
03Z, this may need to be extended through 04-06Z if redevelopment 
occurs.

Winds are currently light out of the ENE and may even become out 
of the ESE for a couple hours before returning out of the NE. A
strong cold front is currently moving through the West Texas
Panhandle that will move through the D10 terminals tonight around 
09Z/ACT around 10Z. Gusty north flow will develop after FROPA with
gusty north winds continuing for most of the day before weakening
late tomorrow afternoon.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  64  45  68  56 /  30   0  10   0   0 
Waco                53  65  48  68  56 /  20   0  20   5   0 
Paris               47  62  41  66  52 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Denton              43  61  39  67  53 /  10   0   5   0   0 
McKinney            45  62  41  67  54 /  20   0   5   0   0 
Dallas              49  64  45  69  56 /  30   0  10   0   0 
Terrell             49  64  43  69  55 /  40   0   5   0   0 
Corsicana           53  66  48  70  56 /  30   0  10   5   0 
Temple              52  67  48  68  55 /  20   5  20  10   0 
Mineral Wells       43  64  41  68  53 /  10   0  10   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$