000
FXUS64 KFWD 280859
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
359 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
/End of the Week/
Our persistent Central CONUS upper trough will continue to pull
readily away to the east with an assist from the exiting strong
180 kt+ jet maximum headed for the northern GoM. A broad NE-SW
surface ridge axis will shift to the east as well with a return to
modest south or southeast winds around 10 mph returning by
afternoon. Though there will be a cool start to the day in the
upper 30s and 40s, the dry airmass in place will warm readily
under plentiful sunshine and strong insolation to between 65 and
75 degrees by mid afternoon. There will be some patchy dense fog
possible across the Colorado River Valley of far western Central
Texas into parts of the Big Country, but nothing that will last
long or require any advisory highlights around sunrise this
morning.
Strong ridging aloft will take hold tonight into early Friday as
an approaching shortwave helps to enhance surface pressure falls
to our west. Southerly winds will increase to between 15 to 20 mph
late this evening and overnight as low level warm advection
increases across the Southern Plains with a 40-50 kt LLJ likely
developing along and west of I-35 overnight. A few, mostly
transient mid level impulses transiting the ridge crest before
Friday morning will result in periods of scattered to broken high
cloudiness. This cloudiness, combined with the increasing
southerly surface winds and warm advection, will help keep Friday
morning lows capped in the 50s.
Friday looks quite windy and should be warmer despite scattered
to broken high clouds continuing to stream east across the
forecast area. Humidity will be on the increase as modified
moisture returns with dew point temperatures in the 50s surging
northward across the region. If not for the high clouds, it could
be warmer than the current mid to upper 70s being advertised for
afternoon high temperatures. Falling surface pressure across the
lee of the southern and central Rockies will combine with late
morning mixing to produce gusty southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with
gusts likely in the 35 to 40 mph range through the day. A Wind
Advisory will likely need to be issued in future forecasts for the
very strong and gusty southerly winds. No precipitation is expected
as a strengthening capping inversion will be situated over the
region.
05/Marty
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend Through Eclipse Day/
Above normal temperatures will prevail this weekend with breezy
south winds. Many locations will reach 80F, particularly on
Sunday despite steadily increasing cloud cover. In fact, portions
of the Big Country may approach 90F for the final day of March.
The south winds will usher in rich Gulf moisture, soaring dew
points well into the 60s, which is among the highest
climatological values for the end of March. This will set the
stage for our next bout of showers and storms.
As broad troughing in the West approaches, its downstream lift
will begin spreading across the Lone Star State as early as
Sunday. A dryline should remain well west of us Sunday afternoon,
but any storms that develop along it could reach our
west/northwest frontier Sunday evening. Storm chances will
increase on Monday when a more pronounced surge brings the dryline
deep into North Texas though the better forcing for ascent will
remain displaced well to our west. The rain event will culminate
Monday night when a cold front overtakes the dryline.
Despite the sun's return, below normal temperatures will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday with breezy north winds. A warming trend
beyond the current 7-day forecast will return 70s to the region
from Thursday through the following weekend (April 5-7).
Some dynamical guidance continues to capture Monday, April 8, but
the output is still skewed toward climatology. The vast majority
of solutions keep North and Central Texas in the south flow
regime following next week's cold front. With a steadily
moistening boundary layer, this would favor nocturnal/morning
stratus. Climatology portends that early April stratus is unlikely
to effectively erode. On those occasions that erosion occurs, it
does so by midday (prior to eclipse time). If not, low clouds
linger through the afternoon. Based on the dynamical output,
GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles all demonstrate springtime stratus in
their cloud probabilities. On the bright side, they all favor
effective erosion, but climatology would place the eclipse-time
cloud gradient near the path of totality.
25
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
/06z TAFs/
No concerns with VFR expected through tonight across the D10
airspace. Light E-NE winds around 5 kts will gradually veer SE
10-15 kts by this afternoon with the eastward departure of the
surface high currently draped across the area.
A strong 40-50 kt LLJ will develop across the western half of the
airspace with a stratus surge remaining well west of all airports
by 12z Friday. However, a warmer and semi-coupled boundary layer
and tightening pressure gradient will result in S winds 15-20 kts
from late this coming evening into the morning hours Friday.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 55 77 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 73 53 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 67 49 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 71 53 75 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 70 53 76 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 72 56 76 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 69 52 74 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 72 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 53 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 53 78 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion