000
FXUS64 KFWD 220710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New Long Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil and pleasant weather conditions will continue through 
  Tuesday morning.

- Storm chances will increase starting Tuesday afternoon with
  additional waves of showers and storms through the weekend.
  Flash flooding and severe weather chances will also increase
  during this timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/
/Through Wednesday/

Low-level moisture will be on the rise through the remainder of
the night, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures and the
development of stratus later tonight. A warm front will begin to 
lift northward through the area this morning and will likely 
result a brief period of patchy fog generally east of the I-35 
corridor and near/south of I-20. While we can't rule out dense 
fog in some areas, any occurrence should be isolated and brief. 
Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated at this time, 
but we will monitor trends closely through the morning. 

Any fog will dissipate by mid morning, with morning stratus
scattering out by midday. This afternoon, the first of a series 
of upper level disturbances will move across the area. If 
destabilization is sufficient as this disturbance arrives, 
scattered showers and storms may develop across portions of 
Central and East Texas. Given the lack of forcing, the severe 
weather threat will remain fairly isolated. However, any stronger 
storms will be capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind 
gusts. 

Some of this activity may continue into the evening hours, 
but our focus will then turn towards an active dryline late this 
evening into the overnight hours Tuesday night. Storms are 
expected to develop near the dryline in far West Texas with the 
arrival of another upper level disturbance. There is still 
significant uncertainty in whether any of this activity will 
survive the journey into North and Central Texas, but if it does, 
it should be on a weakening trend as it encounters a more weakly 
sheared environment. We will keep PoPs broad-brushed through the 
overnight hours, but it's possible the better potential for 
showers and storms will occur on Wednesday. If the decaying
convection sends any boundaries into North and Central Texas, they
would serve as a focus for additional convective development with
the arrival of another disturbance. Similar to Tuesday, any severe
threat would remain fairly isolated, with hail and damaging winds
expected to be the main hazards. 

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night onward/

The active weather pattern will persist through the remainder of 
the forecast as North and Central Texas continues in a warm and 
moist environment. 

With a lack of strong or concentrated forcing mechanism, 
confidence in exact timing of thunderstorm activity through the 
end of the week will remain low. With latest guidance suggesting 
dryline thunderstorms well west of our region through much of the
week, our rain chances will largely be dependent on synoptic- 
level features and diurnally driven convection. 

The first period with higher rain chances will be on Thursday as 
a shortwave moves across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. This 
shortwave will be moving overhead during the afternoon hours as 
peak heating takes place. Thunderstorm activity will likely 
develop, however, it'll largely be disorganized given no focus for
ascent. Thermodynamic parameters suggest there may be enough 
instability for a few strong to severe storms in North Texas, 
however, shear profiles will be rather weak, keeping thunderstorms
from reaching their full potential. In addition to the strong to 
marginally severe storms, heavy rain is likely from any 
thunderstorm. If this rain happens to fall over already saturated 
soils, flooding could become a concern. This system will migrate
eastward through the day, leaving behind decreasing rain chances 
through the night. 

Friday onward, shortwaves will take a more northern trajectory 
across Oklahoma. With the dryline remaining across far West Texas 
and the western Texas Panhandle, our rain chances will be limited 
and dependent on any thunderstorms that migrate towards North 
Texas each evening. For now, the entire region should remain 
precipitation free Sunday - Monday with the exception of those 
west and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. 

Heading into a new week, a deep trough will be digging 
southeastward across the Rockies. This is likely to drive the 
dryline further east, potentially increasing storm chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. We'll need to monitor the mid-week period next 
week as the environment may be favorable for additional vigorous 
storms. Exact hazards remain uncertain; expect additional 
information through the rest of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to develop within the next few hours
across Central Texas, spreading northward into portions of D10
later this morning. Confidence is slightly higher that MVFR
ceilings will make it to DFW/DAL/GKY as compared to AFW/FTW where
any occurrence of MVFR ceilings has a better chance of remaining
intermittent. A TEMPO group has been introduced to the two western
D10 TAF sites to account for this potential, with prevailing MVFR
ceilings maintained in the remainder of the D10 TAFs. Patchy fog
is expected to develop across portions of Central Texas for a few
hours this morning, and a brief TEMPO group has been introduced
to the KACT TAF for MVFR visibilities and LIFR ceilings.

Any fog is expected to dissipate by 15Z, with stratus scattering 
out by midday. Scattered storms may develop across portions of 
Central and East Texas this afternoon and evening, but confidence 
in the location of this activity remains low at this time. 
Therefore, no precipitation has been included in the KACT TAF, but
trends will need to be monitored closely. Additional showers and 
storms may approach from the west late Tuesday night but this
activity will likely dissipate prior to reaching the terminals. 
Better rain/storm chances will likely exist just outside of the 
extended TAF period on Wednesday. Otherwise, south to southeast 
winds will prevail near 5 to 10 knots through the period, with 
light and variable winds continuing for the next few hours at 
KACT. 

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  65  81  66  80 /   5  30  70  50  70 
Waco                88  66  81  66  83 /  20  40  70  30  70 
Paris               82  62  80  63  77 /   0  10  70  40  70 
Denton              85  62  80  63  78 /   0  40  70  40  70 
McKinney            83  63  80  64  78 /   0  20  70  40  70 
Dallas              87  67  82  66  80 /   5  30  70  50  70 
Terrell             85  65  80  65  80 /  20  20  70  40  70 
Corsicana           86  66  81  67  82 /  20  30  70  40  70 
Temple              88  66  82  67  83 /  20  40  70  30  70 
Mineral Wells       87  63  80  63  81 /   0  50  70  40  70 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$