000
FXUS64 KFWD 210614
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend with dry weather
  expected.

- Our next chance of rain arrives next Wednesday, but it's too 
  soon to know specific details about Thanksgiving Day itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

Surface high pressure has settled across the Texas Hill Country 
leading to calm winds and clear skies. This should lead to 
continued efficient radiational cooling with early morning 
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Areas that are typically
cooler such as valleys or low spots may temporarily drop into the
lower 30s, however, most locations should remain above freezing. 

Given the dry air atop our region and westerly to southwesterly 
winds in place, temperatures tomorrow will range between the mid 
60s along the Red River to lower 70s in Central Texas. 

A backdoor cold front will arrive late this afternoon, returning 
northerly winds to all of North and Central Texas. This front will
ensure that the northeastern counties experience overnight 
temperatures in the mid 30s once again. The rest of the region is 
likely to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight. 

Similar to today, tomorrow will once again feature temperatures 
in the lower 60s along the Red River and lower 70s across Central 
Texas. Winds will return out of the south by the afternoon with 
clear skies continuing.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
/Friday Onward/

A reinforcing cold front will move through Thursday afternoon,
keeping pleasant temperatures in place through the end of the 
workweek. A zonal pattern with a relatively strong PFJ aligned 
across the central CONUS will establish this weekend and early 
next week. The result of this will be a sequence of low pressure 
systems moving across the Central CONUS with a few fronts moving 
across North and Central Texas next week.

Strong warm and moist advection should ramp up this weekend, with
Saturday's high peaking in the 70s and much of the area reaching
the low 80s on Sunday. While these numbers won't approach daily
records, our current forecast values for Sunday would be top 5 for 
both Waco and Dallas-Fort Worth. Thankfully, a cold front will
move through Monday and bring a return to near-normal temperatures 
early next week. Sunday will also be breezy, but below our Wind
Advisory criteria.

Almost all the guidance has next Monday's cold front stalling near 
the Gulf Coast early in the week, then lifting north as a warm
front in the middle parts of next week with increased rain 
chances north of the warm front, and another cold front moving 
through late in the week. The timing and other details are still
largely in-flux since the guidance has shown little run-to-run 
consistency. However, there seems to be a consensus on 3 main
solutions for Thanksgiving day. Option 1 is the warm front lifts
north and the cold front doesn't move through until Friday. This 
would result in a mild Thanksgiving, but only ~15% of the guidance 
has this. Most of the remaining guidance has Thanksgiving Day in 
the 50s, with about half of those indicating Thursday being a
drizzly day north of the warm front and the other half indicating 
the stronger cold front moving through through late Wednesday or 
early Thursday. We'll continue to monitor the forecast guidance as
it evolves in the coming days.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Continued tranquil conditions are expected at all TAF sites with 
VFR skies and light westerly winds. Winds will remain out of the 
west/northwest through tomorrow evening before a cold front makes 
it way across the region. For the D10 airspace, the cold front 
will arrive around 03Z Friday, and 06Z at KACT. Behind the front,
northerly winds will return, generally under 10 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  67  43  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                35  71  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               37  64  37  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              36  67  37  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            36  67  37  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              39  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             38  68  38  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           39  70  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              37  73  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       35  69  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$