000
FXUS64 KFWD 142034
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New Long Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will occur through the workweek with
  above normal temperatures returning by Thursday. 

- Low rain chances will return to parts of Central and East Texas
  Wednesday and Friday.
 
- Very cold, Arctic air will arrive behind a cold front this
  weekend. It will be cold through at least the middle of next 
  week. Low temperatures will likely be in the teens and 20s with 
  afternoon highs only in the 20s and 30s for many areas Sunday 
  and Monday.
  
- We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather. Latest
  guidance is slightly more favorable for wintry precipitation,
  but there is still significant uncertainty in how much moisture
  will return ahead of this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
/Through Wednesday/

Longwave troughing will dominate the synoptic pattern over the
center of the country through the short-term period. A dry airmass
overhead will keep rain chances near zero through Wednesday. Light
southerly flow will shift back out of the north later tonight as a
weak frontal boundary sags southward into our region. A low-level
surge in moisture will attempt to push low clouds and isolated
showers into our far southern counties late tonight into early
Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage and reinforcing shot of 
dry air. However, it is likely that the drier air arrives before 
the moisture reaches our forecast area, so we have kept rain 
chances below 10% across our Central Texas and Brazos Valley 
counties. 

Light winds and mostly clear skies over North Texas will allow
overnight temperatures to dip into the mid 20s to low 30s. Expect
afternoon highs in the 50s Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. 

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No significant changes have been made to the forecast since the
overnight update. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly
colder behind the weekend cold front, with high temperatures in
the 20s/30s for most locations Sunday and Monday and dangerous 
overnight lows in the teens and 20s. It won't take much wind to 
drop wind chills into the single digits for some areas. Start 
preparing for the dangerous cold now! 

We continue to monitor the potential for winter weather early next
week. Latest ensemble guidance is leaning slightly more in favor
of a wet forecast than dry, but there is still significant 
uncertainty in whether moisture return will be sufficient ahead of
the early week system. The potential is currently more favorable 
in Central Texas, with most members keying in on the Monday night-
Tuesday timeframe. Most of this time period is just outside of 
the current forecast period, so no winter precipitation has been 
advertised at this time. However, we'll continue to reassess with 
the evening/overnight data as we get within range of this time 
period tonight.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Light north winds behind a weak front will back to the west 
Wednesday night, but may at times be calm to light and variable as
low level flow decouples. With clear skies and dry air in place, 
radiative cooling conditions will be close to ideal, dropping 
temperatures into the upper 20s to mid 30s by daybreak Thursday. 
The cooler side of guidance (slightly below the NBM numbers) was 
used with this forecast package for low temperatures. 

A warming trend will take place Thursday and Friday as a mid 
level ridge strengthens overhead. Temperatures will go from near 
normal to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. The warmth will 
be short-lived, however, as disturbances in both the northern and 
southern branches of a split flow regime will usher in the next 
arctic front Friday night or Saturday. A quick batch of rain 
showers may accompany the front, but rainfall totals will be 
light. Highs will peak in the 40s and 50s on Saturday before 
dropping into the 20s Saturday night. Gusty north winds will drop 
wind chills into the teens to single digits by daybreak Sunday. 

A cold Sunday with highs in the 30s will be followed by another
dangerously cold night, with Sunday night/Monday morning lows
dropping mainly into the 15 to 20 degree range. Preparations for
exposed pipes, pets and vulnerable communities should be done
sometime this week before the arctic airmass arrives. Winter
precipitation does not appear likely based on the latest guidance,
but we will need to keep an eye on model trends (specifically
available moisture) though the week. In either case, the bitter
cold will likely continue into the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all North
and Central Texas terminals. SCT to BKN high clouds will continue
streaming over the region through the afternoon. Light south winds
generally below 6 kts will persist until ~08Z-09Z tonight when a
weak front will shift winds back out of the north. SCT to BKN cigs
around 8-10kft may approach KACT early Wednesday morning. 

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  55  32  60  42 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                36  56  33  60  42 /   0   0   5   5   5 
Paris               29  51  30  56  39 /   0   5   0   0   5 
Denton              28  54  27  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            29  54  27  58  40 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              34  56  32  60  43 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Terrell             31  55  31  59  40 /   0   0   5   5   5 
Corsicana           35  58  35  60  42 /   0   5   5   5   5 
Temple              36  56  33  62  41 /   5   5   5  10   5 
Mineral Wells       30  57  31  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$