Don’t get too comfortable with the brief early glimpse of fall that we experienced over the past weekend, where morning temperatures fell into the 50s and lower 60s across the forecast area on Sunday coupled with a dramatic decrease in humidity levels. Winds will abruptly and vigorously turn back to the south in response to a deepening low pressure system ejecting out of the Rockies onto the Northern Plains. This system will have little impact on our sensible weather, but the increase in southerly wind speeds will advect Gulf moisture back into the area. As temperatures warm back to and above seasonal normal values (89°F normal high for this time of year), heat index values will also soar back to above the century mark by the end of the week, thanks to the increase in humidity. A weak cold front will approach the area by the end of the week with perhaps a few spotty showers and thunderstorms along the Red River. This will be something to watch because if the front sinks farther south, then our chances locally increase for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Though the summer heat will try to make a valiant comeback, at this time, there does not appear to be any sign, aside from the heat index, of triple digit ambient air temperatures. Not too much longer to go before it will be impossible for triple digit heat to occur until next year. Thus, the clock is really winding down fast on summer…
Tag Archives: pattern
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS
The upper air pattern at 500mb will transition to one that supports a trough along the eastern 1/3rd of the nation and an expanding western ridge across the western 1/2 of the nation and semi rex block this into place. This will allow the coldest air to stay well east of Texas where a shot of Arctic air will blast the east coast. Meanwhile, Texas will be on the eastern fringe of the expanding western ridge. This will suppress any storm systems from affecting our region and allow temperatures to warm well above normal for this time of year. So, the forecast for the next seven days will see warming temperatures with abundant insolation.
We are watching very closely the next system that may affect Texas the weekend of January 31st/February 1st. While this is more than 10 days out, several global long-range models have been hinting that this system may try to phase with Arctic air, that may or may not affect the Plains during this time, and produce wintry precipitation across much of Texas. A lot can change over the next several days, but something to watch in the extended. It has been the pattern of this winter for the cold air and southern stream systems not to phase which leaves us with a lot of cold rain events. This may very well be the case with this system. However, given the tendency for this time of year to produce winter weather, nothing is out of the realm of possibilities at this time.