DFW is bracing itself for another round of rain, some of which could become heavy, especially very early Tuesday morning.

For Today (Saturday), a disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be approaching from the southwest. This disturbance is already responsible for some convection upstream in the Trans-Pecos region. As it moves toward North Texas, it will help saturate the mid-levels of the atmosphere. However, it will be encountering increasingly drier air across our region, especially at the surface where dewpoints will largely remain below 50°F.  As a result, think that any precipitation that forms will largely fall in the form of virga, rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. This will play havoc on high temperatures today. I think DFW will have a chance to warm into the 60s as the effects of the disturbance may not arrive in time to offset diurnal warming. However, the further southwest one goes, temperatures may be affected and some areas may fail to get out of the 50s today. The official forecast will call for occasional sprinkles today across DFW, maybe increasing to light rain tonight as the lower levels saturate. Rain amounts in general should stay at or less than 1/10 of an inch.

There should be a reprieve in any precipitation early Sunday morning as we await the dynamics from the approaching trough and  strong upper-air disturbance. Rain should gradually increase from west to east Sunday as the system approaches. By Monday afternoon shear and instability increases and there could be a stronger storm or two. PWATs will also increase substantially by Monday night, as a squall line begins to take shape along a dryline/Pacific cold front racing fast across Texas. Some strong to possibly severe storms will be possible with this system, the main threats being from heavy rain due to higher PWATs, straight line winds, and possibly a spin-up or two.  The squall line is not expected to reach the Metroplex to around daybreak Tuesday morning, thus the morning commute could be a wet one. The dryline/Pacific cold front pushes through  Tuesday morning, thus I expect all of the storms to be east of DFW by 8:00 am ending all precipitation chances. The pressure gradient will tighten between the building anti-cyclone behind the front and departing low pressure system making for another windy day on Tuesday. Winds could gust in the 30 to 40 mph range. Seasonable weather will ensue the remainder of the week. Though I will stress nothing out of the ordinary by any standards, so expect temperatures to remain at or above normal for November. Early indications are that we could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain by Tuesday.

Another cold front and system will bring the next chance at showers and thunderstorms by next weekend.