SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE EVENING

A potentially significant severe weather episode is unfolding for the forecast area later this afternoon well into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area in the Enhanced Risk category for severe weather. Please see the map below. The Enhanced Risk area is in orange, the Slight Risk area is in yellow, the Marginal Risk area is in dark green, the lighter green area means non-severe convection is possible.

Setup: A powerful upper level trough will be digging into the western portions of the state. A dryline will setup ahead of this system and begin surging eastward. Copious moisture advection from the Gulf will be pulled northward, indicative of dewpoints surging into the upper 60s/70s. CAPE (convective available potential energy) values in this moisture laden, warm atmosphere will climb to around 3000 to 3500 J/Kg with shear in excess of 50 knots.

What to Expect: Discrete cells should begin firing along and ahead of the dryline and possibly as far east as the I-35 corridor late this afternoon. These will rapidly become severe producing gigantic sized hail in the Enhanced Risk area. It will be possible for hail to reach baseball, or even softball, size in this type of environment. Over time these cells should grow into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) and push eastward with an attendant damaging straight-line wind threat. With the discrete supercells, especially ahead of the dryline, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The tornado threat should wane as the storms form into QLCS. Another line of storms may approach the area later tonight along the actual cold front.

When: Wednesday, April 17, 2019 between 5:00pm and Midnight.

Please stay alert to changing weather conditions and heed any possible warnings that may be issued for your location.


Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 17, 2019. Damaging winds, giant hail, and a few tornadoes are possible in the Enhanced Risk area which covers the entire forecast area.

NEW AND IMPROVED RADAR AND SATELLITE ADDED TO THE SITE

We have been making several changes to the site behind the scenes over the last few weeks. Some additional, exciting features are being added. One of which you will notice is the new radar and satellite at the bottom of the home page. The old radar and maps page is now gone. The new radar is fully interactive. You can zoom in or out across the entire United States or make it full screen by using the navigation controls on the left hand side of the radar. There is even options to turn on weather warnings when severe weather is affecting the region.

Other features will be added over the next few weeks, so keep checking back. Be sure to let us know how you like the new radar.

2018 SECOND WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR DFW

2018 closed out as officially being the second wettest year on record for Dallas/Fort Worth as recorded at DFW Airport. Out of 120 years of weather records, 2015 and 2018 are the wettest on record. In addition, 2018 produced three months that recorded all time rain records, February (11.31 inches), September (12.69 inches), and October (15.66 inches). A statistic like that will likely never occur again your lifetime. Below are the top five wettest years for DFW:

  1. 2015 – 62.61 inches
  2. 2018 – 55.97 inches
  3. 1991 – 53.54 inches
  4. 1932 – 51.03 inches
  5. 1973 – 50.62 inches.

For reference, the average annual rainfall at DFW is 36.14 inches.

RECORD RAINFALL YESTERDAY AT DFW

Our upper low that brought all the precipitation with it yesterday and early this morning is now marching eastward. It brought a record daily rainfall to DFW Airport. Yesterday we officially recorded 2.45 inches of rain, which broke the old record of 1.35 inches set in 1940. That is nearly the entire month of December rainfall in one day. December only averages about 2.55 inches of rain for the whole month.

DFW RECORDS ITS EARLIEST FIRST FREEZE SINCE 1992

DFW Airport officially reached the freezing mark for the first time this season (11/10/2018 – 32°F). This is the earliest first freeze on record since November 5, 1992 (31°F), 26 years ago. The average first freeze for a given cold season is about November 22nd. On November 14, 2014 (31°F) was the last earliest first freeze of recent record.

FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT, THEN EVERYONE TUESDAY MORNING

A cold, modified Arctic airmass has surged into the DFW area today. A strong surface anti-cyclone pushing south will decouple winds this evening promoting dry and cold air advection into the region. This will set the stage for temperatures to plummet to the upper 20s and lower 30s by Saturday morning. DFW Weather is officially forecasting a low of 32°F at DFW Airport with temperatures north falling into possibly the upper 20s. The heart of Dallas and the Metroplex, along with areas South of I-20, may hang up in the 33°F to 35°F range. Currently, Wise, Collin, Denton, and Parker counties are under a Freeze Warning. Should DFW Airport fall to freezing tonight or Tuesday morning, it is still several days ahead of the average first freeze which is November 22nd, but not anything record breaking. The earliest first freeze on record is October 27, 1957 (29°F). However, it would be the earliest freeze since 2014 (November 12th – 31°F).

An even stronger surge of Arctic air is expected to arrive Sunday night bringing with it a shot at rain and a cold, raw day on Monday. The latest data (as of Friday afternoon) is indicating that temperatures may not get out of the 30s on Monday with most everyone falling into the 20s by Tuesday morning. This will set the stage for possibly a hard, killing freeze (at or below 28°F). Some of the data indicates that the rain on Monday may become mixed with snow, especially north and west of the DFW Metroplex. For now, we are just forecasting a cold rain and will continue to evaluate the latest data. If the models continue to trend colder, then this could be a real possibility. Residents of DFW are reminded this is a good time to winterize your homes and cover, or move indoors, sensitive plants susceptible to the cold. Please stay alert to possible changes to the forecast over the coming days.