Tag Archives: Rain

DFW AIRPORT SETS RECORD FOR WETTEST MAY EVER

May 2015 is the wettest May ever on record for DFW with 16.96 inches of recorded rainfall, and it is also the third wettest month ever on record. Only April 1922 and April 1942 beats this month with 17.64 inches and 16.97 inches of rain respectively. It is also the wettest May in over 30 years. The last time we saw rain of this magnitude, during the month of May, was in 1982 when 13.66 inches of rain fell. The top four rainiest Mays are as follows:

1. 2015 – 16.96 inches

2. 1982 – 13.66 inches

3. 1957 – 12.64 inches

4. 1946 – 12.09 inches

OUR NEXT RAINMAKER FOR THIS WEEKEND [UPDATED]

Average rainfall amounts expected for the weekend of January 31st through February 1st 2015. Map courtesy of WeatherBell.

Next weather system to bring much needed rainfall to North Texas Saturday into Sunday.

UPDATE: It looks as though our system that will bring us rain over the weekend is slowing down. Thus, the forecasts have been adjusted back about 12 hours for the onset of precipitation from prior forecasts. In addition, average total rainfall amounts with this system have been lowered to between 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch of rain across the area based on the latest model data. Please see above graphic for latest rainfall amounts expected across Texas.

Our next weather system will be associated with an upper-level low sitting just off the coast of Baja California. The upper-low itself will move eastward a bit before moving south into Northern Mexico. As it does so, it will eject a rather strong upper-level disturbance northeastward into North Texas. This will set the stage for rain to develop from southwest to northeast beginning as early as Friday night. The rain should last into Sunday. As the disturbance moves off to the northeast, another cold front will plow into the region behind it. This will allow for a return to slightly below normal temperatures for early next week with a widespread freeze expected Monday morning. Don’t worry, the rain will be over by then with no threat of wintry precipitation. Total rainfall amounts with this event should average 1/2 to 1 inch across the region, which will be very much welcomed for our lakes. The upper-low will eject out across South Texas early next week bringing more rain to areas well south of the Metroplex.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO DFW WITH WARMING TEMPS

Current weather map for December 2, 2014, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The Arctic airmass that has settled across DFW and the rest of North Texas on Monday will begin to erode, as the Arctic high slides east and a rather intense warm air advection pattern begins. Our winds will become south/southwesterly today and back more south/southeasterly tonight. This will allow warmer air to begin overriding the colder air at the surface. Well after midnight tonight, areas of fog and drizzle will begin to develop across the forecast area. Some of the fog could be rather dense at times with visibilities below 1 mile. The fog and drizzle will be very slow to burn off on Wednesday and will hang in for much of the morning. Given the pattern, we will keep low chances of light rain showers in the forecast through Friday. Temperatures will begin to warm to near normal, or slightly above, (60s/70s) as we head into the middle and latter part of the week.

By Friday, rain chances will increase as a shortwave approaches (courtesy of weakening upper low moving ashore off the California and Oregon coast) in conjunction with a cold front from the north. Widespread rain will be possible with isolated thunder as dynamics increase ahead of this system. The cold front is expected to move across Friday evening with a combination of Pacific and Canadian air. This front will not be nearly as strong as the Arctic front that moved through early Monday morning. However, it will keep temperatures below normal heading into early next week as another stronger disturbance and cold front arrives. This will bring additional rain chances to the region as we head into next week.

DFW AREA LAKE LEVEL RISE SINCE WEEKEND RAIN EVENT

The system over the weekend brought much needed rainfall to the area. Many of the area lakes benefited from the rain. Below is a map showing the area lakes and how much of a rise they gained after the event. Belton, Cisco, and Limestone all showed the greatest gains with 5 inch increases. Lake Ray Hubbard set a new all-time record low level just before the rain event.

DFW area lake level increase since the weekend rain event. Data courtesy of the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

DFW RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS AND THANKSGIVING WEEK OVERVIEW

The storm system that brought much needed rainfall to DFW has pushed over to the northeast. In its wake, skies were clear with some patchy fog in some locations which should quickly burn off this morning. Rainfall totals were less than what we forecasted as the system took a much further south track than we thought. However, we did get much needed rainfall across the area, but not everyone saw over an inch of rain as we had hoped with our western and southern counties seeing the most precipitation. Please see the pic for a radar estimate of storm totals.

Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.

Another deepening storm system in Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient causing our winds to pick up out of the west today and become quite gusty out ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are going to be very tricky today as compression warming from the front and westerly component to the wind will support a substantial warm-up in the upper 70s. However, the ground is still very wet and will help to offset the warming a bit. Therefore, the official DFW Weather forecast went with the cooler guidance number for highs today in the middle 70s.

The cold front will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees tomorrow with more seasonable weather. This will setup a beautiful Thanksgiving week for North Texas with seasonal weather. Computer model guidance is showing temperatures rebounding well into the 70s for the Thanksgiving weekend. Last week, it looked like we were going to get another surge of Arctic air, but over the weekend, the models back off this scenario. While here at DFW Weather, we are going for the warmer weather scenario for the official forecast, this forecaster will caution that Arctic air is damming up on the models in Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In this type of situation, usually the cold air wins out, and we do get a some sort of frontal passage. This is due, in part, to the fact that cold air is very dense and tends to sink south against the mean flow, and to the fact that models have a hard time in general with placement of shallow/dense-low level cold air. This is something to definitely watch, and the forecast could change drastically next weekend.

LATEST FORECASTED RAIN TOTALS FOR DFW THROUGH SUNDAY

Our big storm system is on its way. The system is now onshore over California and will be moving over North Texas tomorrow. This continues to look like a widespread, mult-inch rain event for the DFW area. 2 plus inches of rain is possible, especially from the DFW Metroplex north and west toward the Red River counties with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in some of the heavier downpours. The data continues to suggest the severe weather threat will remain well south and east of the Metroplex; although, it is still possible that one or two strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out in our area.

Weather Prediction Service of expected rainfall totals across the Sate. Data courtesy of WeatherBell.

Weather Prediction Center of expected rainfall totals across the Sate. Data courtesy of WeatherBell.

The biggest concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall in our area as pWATS (precipitable water) levels increase to 1.50 inches. Well above normal for this time of year. We are still in extreme drought conditions, thus runoff will be absorbed well by area lakes and area soils very dry. Therefore, widespread flooding is not a concern, though localized, urban flash-flooding will be possible.

UPDATE ON MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

A big storm system, currently located a few hundred miles off the coast of Oregon and northern California (see pic), will be our next weather maker here in DFW. This storm system promises to bring much needed rainfall to the region. Latest data continues to suggest this to be a multi-inch rain event beginning late tonight in our northwest counties through Sunday.

Satellite image of the storm system that will bring beneficial rainfall to DFW.

Areas from the DFW Metroplex northward to the Red River counties stand the best chance to see 2 to 4 inches (with isolated higher amounts) of rain with this system by Sunday, as locally heavy rainfall will be possible in some of the storms. Flash flooding may not be widespread due to drier soils, but local flash flooding will be possible in the heavier downpours. As the system crosses the forecast area, the associated trough will become negatively tilted (one of the strongest weather system types) which will inhibit a capping inversion aloft. This will allow for surface-based convection with increasing instability leading to the potential for severe thunderstorms out ahead of the trough. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible with this severe weather threat. While one or two strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out in the DFW area, the latest data continues to suggest that the best severe weather threat still looks to be south and east of the DFW Metroplex.

WARMING TEMPS AND MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We are finally beginning to warm up as the Arctic high releases its grip over North Texas. The Arctic high and trough are moving east allowing our winds to turn around to the south. This will advect warmer air and moisture into the area. You will be noticing warmer temperatures beginning today, with forecasted highs in the 60s and even warmer tomorrow as we climb into the mid-to-upper 60s. By Friday, a strong system will approach DFW in the southern jet enhancing moisture advection out ahead of the system.

Animation of rain event expected over the forecast area Friday through Saturday. Courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, Texas. Click on the image for the full animation.

This will set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms, beginning as early as Thursday night in our northwest counties and area wide on Friday. Some of the showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall, especially on Saturday. Strong to severe weather will also be possible by Saturday, but mainly south and east of the forecast area. This is looking like it could be a multi-inch rain event for the area; however, it is much too soon to pinpoint rainfall amounts. As we get within 24 hours of the event, better data arrives and we will be able to determine more precise rainfall amounts. This is good news as the area does desperately need rainfall.

Don’t get too comfortable with the warmer temps as a cold front arrives on Sunday knocking our temperatures back down. This cold front will not be near as cold as the ones last week. However, things are beginning to come together for another Arctic blast over Thanksgiving weekend. More on that later . . .