Get ready for a wet weekend followed by a substantial blast of Arctic air by next Wednesday. An upper-level storm system, deepening out west, will become a cut-off upper-level low over Mexico before lifting northeastward on Monday. At the surface, a reinforcing shot of colder air will spill southward. This will make for a wet, chilly, day on Saturday with temperatures likely not getting out of the 40s all day. Combined with northeasterly winds of 15 to 25 mph, wind chills will likely be in the upper 30s at times. Persons attending any outdoor sporting events will need to be prepared for wet and cold weather. This upper-storm system is already spreading moisture northward into Texas today. This will set the stage for a widespread rain event beginning as early as later this afternoon/evening and lasting through Monday.

The heaviest rains will come later tonight into Saturday as the first disturbance moves northeastward from this system. At this time, very little convection is expected, though we cannot entirely rule out a lightning strike. No severe weather is expected with this system. Rains may taper off a bit Saturday night into a good portion of Sunday, though some patchy drizzle/mist cannot entirely ruled out during this time frame. Rain chances will increase again on Sunday night into Monday as the main upper-low traverses over North Texas. This will bring the best chances at seeing convection. Widespread rain totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across the forecast areas with the heaviest totals off to the southeast.

After this system passes off to the northeast, our attention will turn to the north as the Arctic gates swing wide open. A very intense Arctic air mass will plunge southward reaching North Texas sometime on Wednesday. The front’s timing is still uncertain this far out. Very cold air will spill southward from eastern Alaska and the western Northwest Territories seeded from air originating from Siberia. Some models are going to a full blown McFarland look to the upper air pattern and driving the surface front as far south as Central America. This will definitely be colder than anything experienced last winter. There is no evidence that suggests any ice or snow with this Arctic intrusion as it looks quite dry. This portion of the forecast will continue to be refined as more data becomes available.