UPDATE: There continues to be no additional data that there will be snow or any wintry precipitation on Monday. There has been a lot of hype that there was going to be a snow or winter weather event on Monday for the DFW area. We are getting a shot at some modified polar air tomorrow, but the latest data suggests that this air mass will not be all that cold. In fact, DFW may struggle to get below the 30°F mark, yet again, on Sunday and Monday mornings. It is true that a very weak disturbance will traverse the area on Monday, but the lower 2000 feet of the atmosphere looks to be at or above freezing. This disturbance will have very little moisture to work with and have to overcome a very deep layer of dry air above. Thus, any precipitation would likely evaporate or sublimate before reaching the ground. This is a phenomenon we refer to as virga.  The upper air pattern is not one that is favorable for significant moisture return or setup for a big winter weather event for DFW. We continue to see no indication of a major intrusion of Arctic air or wintry precipitation within the next 10 days. El Niño winters tend to prevent deep intrusions of Arctic air very far south, and in this particular winter, source regions are not all that cold. Thus, rather mild low temperatures (for this time of year) look to continue for several days. This means it will be hard enough to get us to freezing, much less cold enough for any significant wintry precipitation to cause problems.

For starters, a couple of short wave troughs will be moving across the area today and tonight which will be our next rain maker. The second trough is the stronger of the two, and that will be our best chance at seeing rain. This will not be a big thunderstorm or severe weather event. The atmosphere is too stable for big thunderstorms, though a clap of thunder or lightning strike cannot be entirely ruled out. There will be some drizzle and light rain today that will increase to a light to moderate rain later this afternoon into tonight as the stronger disturbance spreads lift across the area. Most locations will likely see some rain from this, but the heaviest rainfall will be east of the I-35 corridor. Rainfall amounts should generally stay around an inch or less with the heavier amounts further east.

Rain chances will end by tomorrow morning rapidly from west to east as the shortwave troughs move off to the east. Tomorrow will be sunny and much warmer with temperatures rising well above normal into the upper 60s. A repeat performance again on Friday, but a strong Canadian/modified Arctic airmass will be surging southward on Friday.

This front will move through the area early Saturday morning bringing much colder air to the region. It is likely that both Sunday and Monday morning lows will be below freezing area wide. Just how cold the temperatures drop will depend on cloud cover. Right now it looks as though our first dip below 30°F will be possible by Monday morning at DFW Airport. DFW has yet to do so this winter season, and a new record will be set to be the latest in the winter season to fall below 30°F. The previous record was January 8, 1932 (29°F).

At the same time, several models are bringing a weak disturbance across the area and producing snow on Monday. There have been widespread rumors across social media from various sources that this could be a big snow event. Well, there are several problems with this setup. One, it is not a favorable pattern for bringing moisture to our area, thus the weak disturbance will be moisture starved. Second, the disturbance is weak and not very strong. The upper air pattern is not one that has historically brought substantial snowfall to our area. Then, there is the question of how cold it actually will be when there is precipitation as nearly all models warm us above freezing on Monday. At this time, it is still possible that some flurries or light snow can fall on Monday with the passage of the disturbance, but there is nothing in the data to suggest more than that. This certainly does not look like a major winter storm at this time. While it is possible to snow, the chances are very low that precipitation can form in the dry air and that it will be cold enough to support wintry precipitation. For these reasons, we are not forecasting snow at this time. This may change with future data, but right now the forecast will remain dry and chilly for next Monday.