Stubborn pattern over the United States that has what cold is available in the west and warmth for the eastern half of the country. This pattern has been dominant for much of December and will continue through Christmas with near record heat in some places.

For those hoping to see some actual winter weather or temperatures this year for Christmas are going to be very disappointed. Temperatures well above normal will be the rule this week as with much of December 2015. In fact, December 2015 is in the running of being the all time hottest December on record for DFW. As has been the case this year, intense southern stream storm systems have brought copious amounts of rains to the area. It looks like the storm system we are watching post Christmas will be no different.

In the meantime, there a couple of smaller features to discuss in the short-term. Today, a weak cold front will push the soupier air and fog from this morning southeastward as it sweeps across the area. This will allow clouds to clear and temperatures to fall into the 40s overnight (still well above normal for this time of year). Tomorrow morning will likely be the coolest morning of the week. The radiational cooling setup tonight combined with light winds and lingering moisture will set the stage for the potential for fog tonight after midnight. Some of this fog could be dense and may take sometime Tuesday morning to burn off.

A weak short wave trough will dive out of the Rockies into the Central Plains Tuesday and rapidly intensify. This will draw the soupier air back over DFW by Tuesday afternoon, setting the stage for scattered convection from the I-35 corridor points eastward by early Tuesday evening. The official forecast will carry POPs at 20 percent to account for any storms. Any storms that form will have the potential to become strong to even severe as 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of CAPE can be realized by Tuesday evening across the area. Any severe storms would be capable of damaging winds and the threat of moderate to large hail. An isolated tornado threat cannot be entirely ruled out east of the Metroplex, but the tornado threat looks low. Storms will quickly move eastward as the shortwave lifts northeast away from the region.

In its wake, southwest flow aloft will dominate out ahead of potent storm system that moves onto the Pacific northwest. This system is expected to dive into the desert southwest and intensify while becoming partially closed off. The computer models diverge substantially in the handling of this system, but it looks like it will be our next big storm system post Christmas. Warm air advection showers will begin to break out across the area as early as Christmas Day afternoon. This system will have a good fetch of moisture to work with, given the long stretch of southerly flow ahead of it, bringing with it a potential for heavy rainfall as a rather strong cold front dives in from the north on Saturday. It is too soon to tell how much rain we will get, but it does look like at least enough to send us over the 60 inch mark at DFW for the year. This system will need to be watched closely for heavy rainfall leading to more flooding problems and if the precipitation shuts off before the significantly colder air arrives. Stay tuned for inevitable updates to this forecast as the week progresses.