A very wet holiday weekend is in store for much of the area. In fact, we are expecting 3 to 5 inches of rain across the area by Sunday. If this forecast verifies, this will make 2015 the wettest year on record at DFW. Currently, DFW is the 3rd wettest year on record with 50.75 inches of rain officially recorded. Only 1991 (53.54 inches) and 1932 (51.03 inches) are wetter. Thus, DFW only needs to pick up 2.80 inches of rain to break the record. We should out do that by Sunday with December left to go!

A large upper-low will move down from the Pacific northwest and carve out a deep trough over the western CONUS. This upper-low will become cut-off from the mean flow and slowly migrate eastward over the holiday weekend. At the same time, the deep trough will allow cold, Canadian/Arctic air to spill southward. This cold airmass will be very shallow in nature and move southward via cold air damming processes along the lee of the Rockies into Texas against southwest flow aloft. The coldest air will become entrenched across West Texas where temperatures will plummet below freezing setting up for a period of icy weather this weekend.  Strong southwest flow aloft will moderate the cold air as it moves into our area. Thus, temperatures are expected to stay above freezing leading to a cold rain event at DFW. The heaviest rains will occur ahead and along a strong cold front expected to plunge through the area Friday morning. PWATs (precipitable water) are expected to climb as high as 1.75 inches during this event, which is in the 99th percentile for November. In addition, additional moisture will be advected over Texas from the remnants of tropical cyclone Sandra in the Pacific basin. All this points to a heavy rain event across the area. We are not expecting severe weather or wintry precipitation with this event, at this time.

Moisture and warm air advection should intensify today and tonight and become strong enough for areas of drizzle or light rain this evening into tomorrow. An increase in clouds and temperatures through Thanksgiving Day will be possible as this process intensifies out ahead of a strong cold front barreling southward. Precipitation chances increase later on Thanksgiving Day as lift begins to encroach on the area as the cold front moves southward. Rain showers, heavy at times, and few claps of thunder will be possible out ahead of, along, and behind the front as it moves through the area. Additional rainfall will be possible on Saturday through Sunday as the dynamics arrive from the remnants of tropical cyclone Sandra. By Sunday, we should pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain across the area. The upper-low should be moving out east across the Plains pushing the trough out of the area ending all rain from west to east on Sunday/Sunday night.