An Arctic cold front traversed the region this morning advecting much colder air back into the region. Temperatures at this hour were right around freezing, or just below, across the forecast area. A shortwave trough was evident moving across the area on water vapor. This trough is responsible for moderate to strong lift across the region. However, around the Metroplex, there is considerable dry air at the surface to overcome and moisture is rather limited. Farther to the west and southwest of Fort Worth, a snow band has developed in a stronger area of frontogenesis bound by Haskell to Mineral Wells down to Hillsboro resulting in slightly heavier snowfall. Accumulations in this region could reach an inch or so. As a result, the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Parker and Hood counties in our forecast area. Across the Meteroplex, snow should stay rather light with weaker lift and drier air to overcome, though a dusting to 1/2 inch can’t be ruled out. The snow should taper off as lift decreases this afternoon as the shortwave moves off to the east.

Another stronger and larger shortwave trough will approach the area tomorrow. This trough will be slower to move across the area with longer duration of lift expected. However, moisture will still be limited. Depending on the exact tract of this trough (currently northwest of DFW), the highest snowfall accumulations will occur beneath it. This could change with later model runs, and given setup, the possibility exists for up to 2 inches of snowfall on Friday. With temperatures expected to largely be in the 20s, this could pose some travel impacts. This will be further assessed later in the day with the latest model data once the first system gets out of the picture.

The overall synoptic pattern will undergo a change Friday night through the weekend, that transitions us from a large scale trough in the center of the CONUS to one that favors strong southwest flow aloft. This will intensify overrunning of a warm air and moisture advection pattern aloft. With the Arctic airmass in place and temperatures below freezing Friday night into Saturday, periods of snow changing to sleet changing to freezing rain and drizzle will be possible. This will likely coat roadways with a few one hundredths of an inch of ice to possibly a tenth of an inch of ice with isolated higher amounts over much of the forecast area. This will be enough to cause some moderate impacts to travel Saturday. Temperatures will warm significantly on Sunday as a warm front is pushed across the area in the strong warm air advection pattern. This will effectively end all threat for frozen precipitation with switch back to all liquid rain. Some thunderstorms will be possible by Tuesday as instability increases ahead of another cold front.