The upper air pattern at 500mb will transition to one that supports a trough along the eastern 1/3rd of the nation and an expanding western ridge across the western 1/2 of the nation and semi rex block this into place. This will allow the coldest air to stay well east of Texas where a shot of Arctic air will blast the east coast. Meanwhile, Texas will be on the eastern fringe of the expanding western ridge. This will suppress any storm systems from affecting our region and allow temperatures to warm well above normal for this time of year. So, the forecast for the next seven days will see warming temperatures with abundant insolation.

We are watching very closely the next system that may affect Texas the weekend of January 31st/February 1st. While this is more than 10 days out, several global long-range models have been hinting that this system may try to phase with Arctic air, that may or may not affect the Plains during this time, and produce wintry precipitation across much of Texas. A lot can change over the next several days, but something to watch in the extended. It has been the pattern of this winter for the cold air and southern stream systems not to phase which leaves us with a lot of cold rain events. This may very well be the case with this system. However, given the tendency for this time of year to produce winter weather, nothing is out of the realm of possibilities at this time.