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OUR NEXT RAINMAKER FOR THIS WEEKEND [UPDATED]

Average rainfall amounts expected for the weekend of January 31st through February 1st 2015. Map courtesy of WeatherBell.

Average rainfall amounts expected for the weekend of January 31st through February 1st 2015. Map courtesy of WeatherBell.

Next weather system to bring much needed rainfall to North Texas Saturday into Sunday.

Next weather system to bring much needed rainfall to North Texas Saturday into Sunday.

UPDATE: It looks as though our system that will bring us rain over the weekend is slowing down. Thus, the forecasts have been adjusted back about 12 hours for the onset of precipitation from prior forecasts. In addition, average total rainfall amounts with this system have been lowered to between 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch of rain across the area based on the latest model data. Please see above graphic for latest rainfall amounts expected across Texas.

Our next weather system will be associated with an upper-level low sitting just off the coast of Baja California. The upper-low itself will move eastward a bit before moving south into Northern Mexico. As it does so, it will eject a rather strong upper-level disturbance northeastward into North Texas. This will set the stage for rain to develop from southwest to northeast beginning as early as Friday night. The rain should last into Sunday. As the disturbance moves off to the northeast, another cold front will plow into the region behind it. This will allow for a return to slightly below normal temperatures for early next week with a widespread freeze expected Monday morning. Don’t worry, the rain will be over by then with no threat of wintry precipitation. Total rainfall amounts with this event should average 1/2 to 1 inch across the region, which will be very much welcomed for our lakes. The upper-low will eject out across South Texas early next week bringing more rain to areas well south of the Metroplex.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS

The upper air pattern at 500mb will transition to one that supports a trough along the eastern 1/3rd of the nation and an expanding western ridge across the western 1/2 of the nation and semi rex block this into place. This will allow the coldest air to stay well east of Texas where a shot of Arctic air will blast the east coast. Meanwhile, Texas will be on the eastern fringe of the expanding western ridge. This will suppress any storm systems from affecting our region and allow temperatures to warm well above normal for this time of year. So, the forecast for the next seven days will see warming temperatures with abundant insolation.

We are watching very closely the next system that may affect Texas the weekend of January 31st/February 1st. While this is more than 10 days out, several global long-range models have been hinting that this system may try to phase with Arctic air, that may or may not affect the Plains during this time, and produce wintry precipitation across much of Texas. A lot can change over the next several days, but something to watch in the extended. It has been the pattern of this winter for the cold air and southern stream systems not to phase which leaves us with a lot of cold rain events. This may very well be the case with this system. However, given the tendency for this time of year to produce winter weather, nothing is out of the realm of possibilities at this time.

MORE ARCTIC AIR ON THE WAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL

First of two Arctic cold fronts expected this week. Map courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, Tx.

First of two Arctic cold fronts expected this week. Map courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, Tx.

 

The storm system that has brought all the ice to West Texas and all the rain to North Texas the last few days is now moving well off to the northeast. Rainfall amounts ranged a good 1 to 2 inches across the region. Enjoy the sun today and the southwest winds that will help temperatures warm into the 50s. It won’t last long! The first of two Arctic cold fronts will arrive tonight. Gusty northerly winds will usher in more Arctic air for tomorrow. Lows will plummet into the upper 20s by tomorrow morning with wind chill values down in the teens. It will be even colder Monday morning as high pressure, light winds, and radiational cooling help temps plummet into the upper teens to around 20°F.

Another, perhaps even colder, shot of Arctic air arrives on Tuesday. Some forecast models are depicting  a 1060 mb surface high plummeting into the Plains with surface pressure approaching 1050 mb or 31.00 inHg in North Texas. It has been a long time since we have seen surface pressures anywhere near this magnitude in North Texas, and if true, would bring bitterly cold temperatures to boot. This is still a few days out and models can sometimes tend to over forecast surface pressures, but regardless it will be cold with lows likely by Thursday morning in the teens and lower 20s yet again. This is something we will continue to watch, if pressures do get as high as forecasted, surface temperatures would be even colder.

Unlike last week, this week will remain mostly dry with no threat of wintry precipitation, at least not right now. Unfortunately, the upper air pattern may remain highly amplified which could bring even more Arctic air to the region later in the month.

THE YEAR WILL END VERY COLD

The Arctic gates swing wide open just in time for New Years as a massive 1055+ mb high plunges out of the Northwest Territories of Canada deep into Texas. Map courtesy of Accuweather.

The Arctic gates swing wide open just in time for New Years as a massive 1055+ mb high plunges out of the Northwest Territories of Canada deep into Texas. Map courtesy of Accuweather.

Another Arctic airmass is set to plunge into the United States thanks to a highly amplified pattern. A huge ridge will build into Alaska with 560 dm heights building near 60 N. This will unlodge a dense Arctic airmass sitting over the Northwest Territories, indicative of a 1055+mb high pressure cell moving out of Canada into Montana. This will surge southward along the spine of the Rockies spilling deep into Texas.  The Arctic front should arrive at DFW Tuesday morning, if not sooner, bringing with it drastically colder temperatures that will persist through New Year’s Day. At the same time, an upper low will be gathering in the four corners region. Depending on how this ejects out, could lead to precipitation problems across the State…stay tuned! It is too early to pinpoint exact details of just how cold it will be, but right now, New Year’s Eve day and night look to remain below freezing. So, bundle up if heading out to celebrate the New Year. The long-range guidance is pointing to a favorable synoptic pattern setup that could unleash more bitterly cold air as we head into January.

DECEMBER 18, 1983 – THE 31st ANNIVERSARY OF THE HISTORICAL COLD SNAP

On December 18, 1983, one of the severest Arctic cold snaps in modern day plunged into Texas. The mercury dipped below freezing at 7:00 am on December 18th and remained below freezing until 2:00 pm, December 30th, for a record of 295 consecutive hours of freezing/subfreezing temperatures. This of course made December 1983 the coldest December on record for Dallas/Fort Worth with an average monthly temperature of 34.8°F. This is 12.1°F below normal for the month and 4°F colder than any other cold December of record. The coldest temperatures recorded during this period was 5°F on December 22, 1983.

The area experienced a series of Arctic cold fronts beginning on the 15th, 18th, 21st, 24th, and 28th. The Arctic front on the 18th was the most significant. Cloud cover played a role in insolating the area, combined with a very low sun angle so close to the solstice, inhibiting any warming, and allowing the mercury to stay below freezing for several days. The cloud cover also kept temperatures from totally bottoming out, as had skies cleared totally, temperatures likely would have fallen below zero (in fact, Glen Rose, Tx did on the 30th with a low of -2°F). Therefore, this cold snap did not bring DFW its coldest low temperatures for December. That happened a few years later for DFW in December 1989, during another historic cold snap. The coldest temperature recorded was -1°F during 1989. However, from the 22nd through the 25th of 1983, the high temperatures failed to rise above 19°F with the coldest high reported on Christmas Eve of 13°F. This was the second coldest high temperature in DFW weather recorded history. This cold snap brought us 5 daily low temperature records that still stand to this day, and 6 daily high maximum low temperature records. Behind the Arctic front on the 24th, DFW set its all time highest barometric pressure of 31.06 inHg. The cold spell was preceded by a significant winter storm on the 15th and 16th of the month that brought a snowpack to North Texas, which aided in the severity of the cold. Many sites still had snow on the ground by the end of the month. Officially, DFW Airport reported two inches of snow with this event.

The deep freeze reached all the way into Northern Mexico, with severe freezes into the Lower Rio Grande Valley causing tens of millions of dollars worth of damage to the agriculture and farming industries. Thirteen people statewide, six in North Texas alone, were said to have lost their lives due to the cold. $1.5 million dollars damage was done to city pipes in North Texas alone, not including damage to homes and businesses from busted pipes. It was estimated that the damage to agriculture in North Texas was around $50 million.

REMEMBERING THE “COBBLESTONE” ICE STORM THAT HIT DFW ONE YEAR AGO

The following article was written and published by the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, Texas.

A major winter storm gripped most of North and Central Texas from December 5th through the 10th, 2013, severely impacting travel and power throughout the region. Freezing rain, sleet, and a little snow began falling during the afternoon of the 5th, and persisted through the morning hours of the 6th. As dawn broke on December 6th, a thick layer of ice encased much of North and Central Texas. Just about everyone north of a Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Palestine line had ice on the ground at this point, including the entire DFW Metroplex. Sleet and ice measured as deep as 5″ in some areas, particularly in a swath extending from Denton, through Sherman, to Bonham.

Ice accretion amounts across DFW from the “Cobblestone” ice storm that hit the area exactly one year ago. Map courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth, Texas.

Ice accretion amounts across DFW from the “Cobblestone” ice storm that hit the area exactly one year ago. Map courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth, Texas.

As challenging as these fresh accumulations were for residents and travelers, the prolonged cold would make things worse. Temperatures dropped below freezing late in the day on the 5th, and would remain in the ice box for most of the next 5 days. The recurring combination of tire compaction, melting/re-freezing, and sand treatment would transform the initial frozen precipitation into rock hard formations, which would eventually be referred to as “cobblestone ice”. Most area streets and highways in the Metroplex and points north were subjected to these challenging conditions, forcing residents to remain at home for several days. Further south, conditions were a bit better, though ice did linger on bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces. Hundreds of cars and trucks were stranded for long periods on many of the main highways, particularly Interstate 35 from Fort Worth to the Oklahoma border, and Interstate 20 from Fort Worth going west.

While travel disruption was a major impact from this winter storm, power and property were others. Thousands of tree branches and power lines were downed by the weight of ice, particularly from Fort Worth, north and east to Paris. At the peak of the storm, 275,000 customers were without power in the North Texas region. Ice-laden tree branches crashed into vehicles, homes and other structures, sending thousands of residents scrambling for their insurance adjusters. Early estimates from the Insurance Council of Texas topped $30 million in residential insured losses. This figure did not include damage to vehicles or roads. Many roads and bridges were directly damaged from the ice – or from attempts to remove the ice using plows and graders. The clean-up from this event took weeks and even a few months in some places.

Most schools, especially in the hardest hit areas, were closed for several days, and thousands of businesses were forced to close for at least a day or two. Airlines at DFW Airport and Dallas Love Field cancelled hundreds of flights, and thousands of flyers were sheltered at both airports during the storm. Seven fatalities occurred during this event; 4 in vehicles, 2 from exposure, and 1 from a fall on the ice. Hundreds of injuries were also reported due to falls on the ice.

A Little More About Cobblestone Ice. Why Did It Form? 

One of the most memorable aspects of this particular storm was the introduction of “cobblestone ice” into the common vocabulary of North Texans. So why did it form, and why did it get so bad?

First off, it goes without saying that there was an abundance of precipitation with this event. Many areas received over an inch of liquid, including DFW Airport, where 1.25” of liquid was observed. North and east of the Metroplex, totals were even higher. This translated into multiple inches of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain which existed in layers of varying depth. As traffic and marginal air and ground temperatures began to work on this frozen mess, some of it melted partially and morphed into slush during the daytime hours. Once nighttime fell, however, most of it would refreeze and harden. Despite the best efforts of local and state road crews, this cycle of compaction, melting, refreezing and hardening repeated itself in some areas over a period of up to 4 days.

In some spots, particularly on bridges and overpasses, larger chunks of ice were broken out of the icepack by plows and traffic. These chunks would mix in with the slush during the daytime, forming a soupy gray mess. At night, the entire concoction would refreeze, producing large molded bumps that were essentially glued to the very top of the roadways (or bridge decks). It was these hard, rock-like formations that represented the essence of the cobblestone ice experience for North Texas drivers.

Once frozen in place, this unique ice proved quite difficult to remove. Depths ranged from ½” to 4”, depending on where traffic caused peaks and valleys in the slush before it froze into cobblestone form.

While not a frequent occurrence, winter precipitation is no stranger to North and Central Texas. Fortunately, the cobblestone ice phenomenon is quite unusual. In addition to the magnitude of ice, it was the sustained period of cold temperatures following the event – interspersed with episodes of melting – that promoted the rough driving conditions. The only sure way to prevent this from happening in the future will be to remove most of the sleet and snow from the roadways before it gets a chance to melt and refreeze. Unfortunately, it may be difficult for local and state public works and transportation departments to achieve this lofty goal, given the thousands of miles of roadways under their jurisdictions. Having said this, local cities and counties, the State of Texas, and the National Weather Service in Dallas/Fort Worth did learn a great deal from the December 6th, 2013 storm – and these lessons will surely benefit all of North and Central Texas during future events.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO DFW WITH WARMING TEMPS

Current weather map for December 2, 2014, courtesy of WeatherBell.

Current weather map for December 2, 2014, courtesy of WeatherBell.

The Arctic airmass that has settled across DFW and the rest of North Texas on Monday will begin to erode, as the Arctic high slides east and a rather intense warm air advection pattern begins. Our winds will become south/southwesterly today and back more south/southeasterly tonight. This will allow warmer air to begin overriding the colder air at the surface. Well after midnight tonight, areas of fog and drizzle will begin to develop across the forecast area. Some of the fog could be rather dense at times with visibilities below 1 mile.  The fog and drizzle will be very slow to burn off on Wednesday and will hang in for much of the morning. Given the pattern, we will keep low chances of light rain showers in the forecast through Friday. Temperatures will begin to warm to near normal, or slightly above, (60s/70s) as we head into the middle and latter part of the week.

By Friday, rain chances will increase as a shortwave  approaches (courtesy of weakening upper low moving ashore off the California and Oregon coast) in conjunction with a cold front from the north. Widespread rain will be possible with isolated thunder as dynamics increase ahead of this system. The cold front is expected to move across Friday evening with a combination of Pacific and Canadian air. This front will not be nearly as strong as the Arctic front that moved through early Monday morning. However, it will keep temperatures below normal heading into early next week as another stronger disturbance and cold front arrives. This will bring additional rain chances to the region as we head into next week.

NEXT ARCTIC BLAST ON ITS WAY

Arctic cold front expected to arrive in the pre-dawn hours at DFW. Map courtesy of Accuweather.

Arctic cold front expected to arrive in the pre-dawn hours at DFW. Map courtesy of Accuweather.

Residents of DFW should get out and enjoy the weekend, as it will be nice and warm for late November with temperatures pushing 80°F. All of this nice weather comes to an abrupt halt early on Monday as an Arctic cold front blasts through the area. Expect temperatures to be a good 35 to 40 degrees colder Monday and Tuesday from high temperatures experienced over the weekend. This Arctic airmass will be rather shallow as we are not expected to take the full brunt of the cold. It will stay to the north and slide off to the east rather quickly. This will make this Arctic blast rather short-lived, especially compared to the last one (not the same setup). By Wednesday, temperatures will be rebounding rapidly in a strong warm air advection pattern. The cold air will enhance lift across the area on Monday, thus low clouds and patchy drizzle will be the result. Areas northwest of the Metroplex may fall below freezing while the drizzle is falling, but impacts are not expected as extremely dry air in the upper levels should quickly shut off the drizzle. Lows by Tuesday morning should be below freezing area wide, probably in the 20s.

DFW AREA LAKE LEVEL RISE SINCE WEEKEND RAIN EVENT

The system over the weekend brought much needed rainfall to the area. Many of the area lakes benefited from the rain. Below is a map showing the area lakes and how much of a rise they gained after the event. Belton, Cisco, and Limestone all showed the greatest gains with 5 inch increases. Lake Ray Hubbard set a new all-time record low level just before the rain event.

DFW area lake level increase since the weekend rain event. Data courtesy of the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

DFW area lake level increase since the weekend rain event. Data courtesy of the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

DFW RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS AND THANKSGIVING WEEK OVERVIEW

The storm system that brought much needed rainfall to DFW has pushed over to the northeast. In its wake, skies were clear with some patchy fog in some locations which should quickly burn off this morning. Rainfall totals were less than what we forecasted as the system took a much further south track than we thought. However, we did get much needed rainfall across the area, but not everyone saw over an inch of rain as we had hoped with our western and southern counties seeing the most precipitation. Please see the pic for a radar estimate of storm totals.

Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.

Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.

Another deepening storm system in Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient causing our winds to pick up out of the west today and become quite gusty out ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are going to be very tricky today as compression warming from the front and westerly component to the wind will support a substantial warm-up in the upper 70s. However, the ground is still very wet and will help to offset the warming a bit. Therefore, the official DFW Weather forecast went with the cooler guidance number for highs today in the middle 70s.

The cold front will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees tomorrow with more seasonable weather. This will setup a beautiful Thanksgiving week for North Texas with seasonal weather. Computer model guidance is showing temperatures rebounding well into the 70s for the Thanksgiving weekend. Last week, it looked like we were going to get another surge of Arctic air, but over the weekend, the models back off this scenario. While here at DFW Weather, we are going for the warmer weather scenario for the official forecast, this forecaster will caution that Arctic air is damming up on the models in Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In this type of situation, usually the cold air wins out, and we do get a some sort of frontal passage. This is due, in part, to the fact that cold air is very dense and tends to sink south against the mean flow, and to the fact that models have a hard time in general with placement of shallow/dense-low level cold air. This is something to definitely watch, and the forecast could change drastically next weekend.