DFW’s mild winter is about to come to an end. A very impressive Arctic airmass will be building and plunged south into the heartland of the CONUS over the weekend, indicative of a ~1045mb high pressure system. This all teleconnected very well with negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and negative NAO. This will produce the coldest weather for this winter by a long shot for DFW. There is an increasing concern that temps could fall below 10°F at the coldest point which is the threshold for severe cold for this region and necessitate Hard Freeze Warnings for the area. This type of cold can damage agriculture and infrastructure this far south as we saw in February 2021. At the very least, we are confident temps will fall to the teens Monday and Tuesday next week for DFW with high temps struggling to get out of the 20s. At this time, it is not anticipated that the cold will be anywhere near the magnitude of February 2021, or last as long. There is a small chance that we may see some impactful wintry precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Not all of the models are on board with this scenario, but enough are that we will be monitoring that closely. Of course, any frozen precipitation will only exacerbate the cold. If you have not winterized your homes, now will be a good time to do so.

The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth is upgrading the Winter Storm Warning to an Ice Storm Warning for the western half of the Metroplex including Fort Worth for tomorrow into early Thursday. The potential exists for severe icing on top of the already 1/2 inch of sleet or so. There could be an additional 1/2 inch of ice accretion from moderate to heavy freezing rain tomorrow. This would make travel nearly impossible and hamper the improvement of roadways in this area until late Thursday or early Friday. This amount of ice could potentially cause widespread power outages, especially in areas that have above ground power lines. The weight of the ice can bring them down, and also bring down tree limbs that fall on the power lines. Travel in Tarrant, Parker, Hood, Denton, Johnson, and Wise counties is strongly discouraged.

An Acrtic airmass is barreling south and should reach the DFW Metroplex by sunrise Sunday morning. Temperatures should plummet 10 to 20 degrees with a an hour or so behind the front. Sunday’s high temperatures are occuring now. This airmass is very dense but shallow, only about 1 km thick vertically. It will also hang around most of the upcoming week.

As cold air advection intensifies Sunday evening, temperatures will drop below freezing all the way to Waco Monday morning. An upper level storm system will approach from out west setting the stage for freezing drizzle on Monday. This will start the icing process on bridges and overpasses. Because it is drizzle, roads may look fine, but are actually coated with a glaze of black ice. Motorists should be very cautious traveling on Monday.

Conditions will worsen Monday night into Tuesday as temperatures get colder and precipitation ramps up. Sleet will also be mixing in with the freezing rain. Total ice accretion from this event depends on several factors and not entirely known at this time. However, it is becoming clear that ice may cause major travel headaches from the DFW Metroplex north and west. There may be enough ice accretion to warrant a Winter Storm Warning for part or all of the forecast area. Please stay alert to changing weather forecasts and conditions.

Key Messages:

• Severe cold Arctic outbreak expected for Christmas. Arctic front arrives early Thursday.
• Very cold temperatures with lows in the single digits both Friday and Saturday mornings.
• Wind chill values will be below zero Thursday night into Friday morning.
• Very strong winds expected on Thursday behind the front.
• No snow or ice is expected outside of a few flurries.
• Temperatures to stay below freezing for 72 hours (from Thursday to Christmas Day)
• Pipes will burst if not properly wrapped and protected
• This will be the coldest Christmas since 1989.

A major Arctic airmass that has been building in Canada seeded by air from Siberia will plunge southward into the lower 48 this week. The high pressure associated with this airmass is progged to be some 1060+ mb and may challenge high pressure records for the lower 48. This will undoubtedly bring a severe cold snap to much of Texas for the holiday. Residents, especially those planning on being out of town, should prepare their homes by wrapping their pipes. Temperatures at the coldest point could potentially reach the upper single digits at DFW. This is cold enough to cause infrastructure damage in this region and is considered severe cold. Freezes will likely reach all the way into Northern Mexico and into the Lower Rio Grande Valley with this.

The Arctic front is expected to arrive on very early Thursday with plunging temperatures behind it. Temps will likely be in the single digits across all of North Texas by Friday morning with wind chills below zero. This will not be a repeat of the cold air outbreaks of December 1983, December 1989, or most recently, February 2021. We simply will not get that cold, nor is the longevity of this cold air outbreak expected to be that long. However, this will be the coldest Christmas since 1989 for DFW. Freezing temperatures are expected for about 72 hours from Thursday to Christmas Day. We are not expecting any ice or snow with this cold outbreak at this time. Residents are urged to take proper precations to winterize their homes, including wrapping exposed outdoor pipes. Pipes will freeze and burst in this type of cold.