UPDATE: The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include all of the forecast area. The expectation is the precipitation will be a bit heavier tonight in the form of actual freezing rain and sleet. Ice accretion in the advisory area is expected to be up to 1/4 of an inch with isolated amounts slightly higher. Since amounts reaching 1/4 of an inch will be more isolated, they have foregone a Winter Storm Warning at this time. Regardless, this will be enough ice to cause problems on not only bridges and overpasses but secondary roadways as well. Thursday morning commutes could be very problematic. Temperatures are expected to be in the 24-28°F degree range in the advisory area. DFW Airport forecasted low is 25°F.

Temperatures dropped to the middle to upper 20s, a couple of degrees colder than most models, this morning across the Winter Weather Advisory area which was expanded to include Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Widespread freezing drizzle has been occurring. Motorists should exercise caution when commuting this morning for possible icy bridges and overpasses and black ice patches. The advisory now runs through noon on Thursday as another disturbance pivots across the area bringing more in the way of light freezing rain and sleet tonight into tomorrow. Temperatures should have no trouble getting into the mid 20s again tomorrow morning. Areas that fall below 28°F may have more widespread issues with all roadways.

We will continue to see one Arctic surge after another through the coming 7 days. The coldest of which will occur on Saturday night through Wednesday. There is confidence that we, at some point at DFW Airport, will get to 12°F or colder, which will make for the coldest temps since 1996. If the mercury reaches 7°F, it will be the coldest since December 1989. Regardless of how cold it actually gets, it does look like temps will reach severe cold category with dangerously cold wind chills approaching 10 below zero at times. Hard Freeze Warnings and Wind Chill Warnings will likely be needed at some point.

There will be a quick shot of sleet and snow with the Arctic front on Saturday. However, it will get shut off rapidly by the deepening cold air. Models are now coming into better agreement on a more significant winter storm (likely all snow) Sunday night into Monday. If we get a snowpack, it will only exacerbate the bitterly cold temperatures. This is still several days out and the forecast will likely undergo many changes. More on this potential as more data becomes available.

A potentially significant severe weather episode is unfolding for the forecast area later this afternoon well into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area in the Enhanced Risk category for severe weather. Please see the map below. The Enhanced Risk area is in orange, the Slight Risk area is in yellow, the Marginal Risk area is in dark green, the lighter green area means non-severe convection is possible.

Setup: A powerful upper level trough will be digging into the western portions of the state. A dryline will setup ahead of this system and begin surging eastward. Copious moisture advection from the Gulf will be pulled northward, indicative of dewpoints surging into the upper 60s/70s. CAPE (convective available potential energy) values in this moisture laden, warm atmosphere will climb to around 3000 to 3500 J/Kg with shear in excess of 50 knots.

What to Expect: Discrete cells should begin firing along and ahead of the dryline and possibly as far east as the I-35 corridor late this afternoon. These will rapidly become severe producing gigantic sized hail in the Enhanced Risk area. It will be possible for hail to reach baseball, or even softball, size in this type of environment. Over time these cells should grow into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) and push eastward with an attendant damaging straight-line wind threat. With the discrete supercells, especially ahead of the dryline, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The tornado threat should wane as the storms form into QLCS. Another line of storms may approach the area later tonight along the actual cold front.

When: Wednesday, April 17, 2019 between 5:00pm and Midnight.

Please stay alert to changing weather conditions and heed any possible warnings that may be issued for your location.

A cold front has moved through the entire forecast area. Moist flow running atop the cooler air at the surface has led to cloudy skies today. A disturbance will be approaching the region tonight from out west spreading lift across the area. PWATs (precipitable water) values are expected to climb to 1 to 1.5 inches across the area. This will lead to numerous showers to develop tonight into tomorrow night. This is not expected to be a widespread heavy rain event as all precipitation is expected to be light to moderate. Rainfall amounts will vary from as little as .10″ to just over an inch in the immediate DFW Metroplex. Heaviest totals will be to the south and east of the Metroplex. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east Wednesday night. Cold air advection, clouds, and rain will keep temperatures in the 40s all day tomorrow. Lows will drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s for Thursday morning. Another cold front with more shots at rain is expected this weekend.

Forecast rainfall totals for Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Hurricane Irma, still days away from making landfall on the continental United States, is not a threat to the Texas coast, despite the garbage being disseminated on social media. In fact, there is not a computer model forecast that takes Irma into the Texas coast. Irma will likely be our next major hurricane in the Atlantic basin possibly reaching Category 5 strength, but as stated, she is days away from reaching the United States. There is another area of disturbed weather coming off Mexico that may be a potential tropical threat for the Gulf in about 6 to 10 days. This may bear watching; however, we have a pretty stout cold front coming down the Plains next week that is expected to make it out into the Gulf. This front will effectively act as a barrier wall for Texas against the tropics. This front may bring a quick shot at rain as it barrels through North Texas Tuesday evening. Winds will turn out of the north around 20 mph or so and be quite breezy behind this front. Temperatures will feel more autumn like by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Much of North Texas is expected to fall into the 50s by Thursday morning as much drier and cooler air is advected into the region.

While it feels cold outside this morning with temperatures in the 30s, wind, and patchy areas of drizzle, it will be nothing compared to what is coming this weekend. Today will struggle to warm under mostly cloudy skies with temperatures topping out in the mid 40s. A rapid warm-up will commence tonight as an intense warm air advection pattern unfolds out ahead of the next trough. Temperatures will actually start out colder and warm steadily through the night. Actual lows for tomorrow will probably occur closer to midnight than sunrise.

Warming will continue to take place through tomorrow as temperatures soar into the 70s. This will be short lived as powerful Arctic air mass is dislodged and plunges deep into Texas on Saturday. Timing of the front is somewhat hard to ascertain as these Arctic air masses always move faster than guidance. The current thinking is that the front will arrive sometime around midday Saturday. Temperatures should be able to warm into the 60s ahead of the boundary, possibly warmer if the front’s timing is later. Then there should be a drastic temperature drop behind the front. Guidance continues to trend colder with this air mass, and DFW Weather now is forecasting lows in the teens both Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs will struggle to get out of the 20s on Sunday, if at all, even under full insolation. It will also be windy with gusts to 35 mph possible. This will be put wind chill values in the single digits Sunday morning with wind chill values close to zero or below near the Red River. Wind chill values will remain in the single digits and teens throughout all of Sunday.

On Monday, temps will struggle to reach freezing, if at all, again making for another very cold day. Another cold night can be expected on Tuesday with morning temps bottoming out in the lower 20s once again.

Regarding the potential for wintry precipitation, it is looking much too dry at the surface and in the dendritic growth zone for snow crystal production. However, with these cold air masses, we cannot entirely rule out some patchy freezing drizzle or a flurry or two, but nothing significant. This is mostly likely to occur Saturday night early Sunday morning before the moisture is really scoured out, though most will see nothing.

Residents of the DFW area should prepare now for a prolonged period of subfreezing temperatures by winterizing their homes (wrapping pipes) and taking necessary precautions for outdoor animals and sensitive plants.

Get ready for a wet weekend followed by a substantial blast of Arctic air by next Wednesday. An upper-level storm system, deepening out west, will become a cut-off upper-level low over Mexico before lifting northeastward on Monday. At the surface, a reinforcing shot of colder air will spill southward. This will make for a wet, chilly, day on Saturday with temperatures likely not getting out of the 40s all day. Combined with northeasterly winds of 15 to 25 mph, wind chills will likely be in the upper 30s at times. Persons attending any outdoor sporting events will need to be prepared for wet and cold weather. This upper-storm system is already spreading moisture northward into Texas today. This will set the stage for a widespread rain event beginning as early as later this afternoon/evening and lasting through Monday.

The heaviest rains will come later tonight into Saturday as the first disturbance moves northeastward from this system. At this time, very little convection is expected, though we cannot entirely rule out a lightning strike. No severe weather is expected with this system. Rains may taper off a bit Saturday night into a good portion of Sunday, though some patchy drizzle/mist cannot entirely ruled out during this time frame. Rain chances will increase again on Sunday night into Monday as the main upper-low traverses over North Texas. This will bring the best chances at seeing convection. Widespread rain totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across the forecast areas with the heaviest totals off to the southeast.

After this system passes off to the northeast, our attention will turn to the north as the Arctic gates swing wide open. A very intense Arctic air mass will plunge southward reaching North Texas sometime on Wednesday. The front’s timing is still uncertain this far out. Very cold air will spill southward from eastern Alaska and the western Northwest Territories seeded from air originating from Siberia. Some models are going to a full blown McFarland look to the upper air pattern and driving the surface front as far south as Central America. This will definitely be colder than anything experienced last winter. There is no evidence that suggests any ice or snow with this Arctic intrusion as it looks quite dry. This portion of the forecast will continue to be refined as more data becomes available.