Please check out the informative article Meteorologist Chris Robbins wrote over at iWeatherNet on the incredible rains we have received throughout 2015, including the fact that November came in as the wettest November in DFW history. Lots of great climatological data and analysis presented here:
Category Archives: Holiday
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AT DFW MAKING FOR THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD
A very wet holiday weekend is in store for much of the area. In fact, we are expecting 3 to 5 inches of rain across the area by Sunday. If this forecast verifies, this will make 2015 the wettest year on record at DFW. Currently, DFW is the 3rd wettest year on record with 50.75 inches of rain officially recorded. Only 1991 (53.54 inches) and 1932 (51.03 inches) are wetter. Thus, DFW only needs to pick up 2.80 inches of rain to break the record. We should out do that by Sunday with December left to go!
A large upper-low will move down from the Pacific northwest and carve out a deep trough over the western CONUS. This upper-low will become cut-off from the mean flow and slowly migrate eastward over the holiday weekend. At the same time, the deep trough will allow cold, Canadian/Arctic air to spill southward. This cold airmass will be very shallow in nature and move southward via cold air damming processes along the lee of the Rockies into Texas against southwest flow aloft. The coldest air will become entrenched across West Texas where temperatures will plummet below freezing setting up for a period of icy weather this weekend. Strong southwest flow aloft will moderate the cold air as it moves into our area. Thus, temperatures are expected to stay above freezing leading to a cold rain event at DFW. The heaviest rains will occur ahead and along a strong cold front expected to plunge through the area Friday morning. PWATs (precipitable water) are expected to climb as high as 1.75 inches during this event, which is in the 99th percentile for November. In addition, additional moisture will be advected over Texas from the remnants of tropical cyclone Sandra in the Pacific basin. All this points to a heavy rain event across the area. We are not expecting severe weather or wintry precipitation with this event, at this time.
Moisture and warm air advection should intensify today and tonight and become strong enough for areas of drizzle or light rain this evening into tomorrow. An increase in clouds and temperatures through Thanksgiving Day will be possible as this process intensifies out ahead of a strong cold front barreling southward. Precipitation chances increase later on Thanksgiving Day as lift begins to encroach on the area as the cold front moves southward. Rain showers, heavy at times, and few claps of thunder will be possible out ahead of, along, and behind the front as it moves through the area. Additional rainfall will be possible on Saturday through Sunday as the dynamics arrive from the remnants of tropical cyclone Sandra. By Sunday, we should pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain across the area. The upper-low should be moving out east across the Plains pushing the trough out of the area ending all rain from west to east on Sunday/Sunday night.
CHRISTMAS DAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS AT DFW
- 2009 – Snow remained on the ground from the Christmas Eve blizzard.
- 2000 – Record rainfall of nearly 2″ fell during the evening with temperatures from 32°F to 34°F with some minor freezing rain. However, severe freezing rain occurred north and northeast of the Metroplex.
- 1997 – A few flurries were mixed with rain during the evening. The next morning a blanket of up to ½” of snow covered portions of the Metroplex.
- 1975 – 0.4″ of snow fell on the first almost white Christmas in nearly 50 years.
- 1974 – A trace of sleet was reported.
- 1963 – No snow remained from a 2″ snowfall on December 22.
- 1929 – One of the heaviest snow events in Texas history occurred on December 21. From Clifton to Hillsboro, 24-26 inches of snow fell. A long swath of snowfall in excess of 12 inches stretched from Goldthwaite and Lampasas to Corsicana and Athens. The Waco and Temple/Killeen areas saw 10-16 inches of snow, but only a trace of snow was recorded in Dallas/Fort Worth.
- 1926 – 2″ of snow fell in Fort Worth but melted by afternoon. Dallas received 6.3″ of snow.
- 1914 – There was a trace of snow recorded with a few brief flurries.
- 1887 – A severe ice storm occurred on December 23, resulting in numerous downed trees and telegraph lines. Heavy snow followed on Christmas Eve, with as much as 9 inches falling in Palestine.
- 1879 – 1″ of sleet and snow was on the ground. It was said that the snow and sleet was so compacted that a horse’s hoof did not leave an imprint in the snow.
- 1841 – Three soldiers from a nearby fort were tracking a bear in 6″ of snow near what is now White Rock Lake.
DFW SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
- 2009 – Rare blizzard conditions impacted portions of North Texas. As much as 9 inches of snow fell in Jacksboro and Bowie, and winds in excess of 50 mph resulted in drifts of 3 to 5 feet. For Dallas/Fort Worth, it was the first measurable Christmas Eve snowfall on record.
- 2002 – There were a few snow flurries across North Central Texas on Christmas Eve. Many locations in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex reported light snow.
- 1975 – Following a continuous cold rain most of the day, a trace of flurries was recorded. Most of the snow melted as it fell.
- 1963 – 2″ of snow had fallen on December 22. 1″ remained on the following day, the day prior to Christmas Eve, but only a trace remained on Christmas Eve with a low of 22°F.
- 1955 – This hot day reached a record high of 88°F.
- 1943 – Flurries fell from 7:30-8:00 PM. There was little accumulation after a sub-freezing day (28°F-32°F) with 0.15″ of freezing rain.
THANKSGIVING DAY HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS FOR DFW
- November 22, 2007 – A light wintry mix of sleet and snow fell during a cold afternoon. It was only the second occasion that wintry precipitation fell during a home Dallas Cowboys football game (vs. New York Jets).
- November 25, 1993 – Freezing rain and sleet fell during a subfreezing afternoon, amounting to 0.3″ on the ground. This was the first time that wintry precipitation was ever recorded on Thanksgiving. The low was 23°F and the high was only 35°F, making it the coldest Thanksgiving ever. Also, the annual Thanksgiving Day Dallas Cowboys football game (vs. Miami Dolphins) was the first time wintry precipitation fell during an NFL game in Dallas.
- November 25, 1965 – This hot day reached a record high of 88°F.
- November 22, 1945 – It was the first killing frost of the winter of 1945-46, a low temperature of 31°F.
- November 30, 1905 – The first killing frost of the season was a hard freeze, a morning low of 23°F.
DFW RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS AND THANKSGIVING WEEK OVERVIEW
The storm system that brought much needed rainfall to DFW has pushed over to the northeast. In its wake, skies were clear with some patchy fog in some locations which should quickly burn off this morning. Rainfall totals were less than what we forecasted as the system took a much further south track than we thought. However, we did get much needed rainfall across the area, but not everyone saw over an inch of rain as we had hoped with our western and southern counties seeing the most precipitation. Please see the pic for a radar estimate of storm totals.
Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.
Another deepening storm system in Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient causing our winds to pick up out of the west today and become quite gusty out ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are going to be very tricky today as compression warming from the front and westerly component to the wind will support a substantial warm-up in the upper 70s. However, the ground is still very wet and will help to offset the warming a bit. Therefore, the official DFW Weather forecast went with the cooler guidance number for highs today in the middle 70s.
The cold front will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees tomorrow with more seasonable weather. This will setup a beautiful Thanksgiving week for North Texas with seasonal weather. Computer model guidance is showing temperatures rebounding well into the 70s for the Thanksgiving weekend. Last week, it looked like we were going to get another surge of Arctic air, but over the weekend, the models back off this scenario. While here at DFW Weather, we are going for the warmer weather scenario for the official forecast, this forecaster will caution that Arctic air is damming up on the models in Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In this type of situation, usually the cold air wins out, and we do get a some sort of frontal passage. This is due, in part, to the fact that cold air is very dense and tends to sink south against the mean flow, and to the fact that models have a hard time in general with placement of shallow/dense-low level cold air. This is something to definitely watch, and the forecast could change drastically next weekend.